Scully’s Week 15 NFL picks: Showdown in the AFC South

The season is winding down and an exciting match-up between AFC South contenders is among the games I will preview for Week 15.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Tennessee climbed out of a 2-4 hole after it named Ryan Tannehill starting quarterback, with six wins in seven games, and the Titans will take sole possession of first place in the AFC South this weekend.

Tannehill has been dynamite. He has completed 75.5% of his passes, the Titans have averaged 37.5 points over their last four games and his emergence has allowed running back Derrick Henry to become an absolute force. The NFL’s second-leading rusher has compiled 599 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground in the last four games.

Houston’s defense is too inept to slow down Tennessee. The Texans dropped to 27th in defensive efficiency ratings following last week’s fiasco against Denver, when they fell behind 31-3 midway through the third quarter, and this is the kind of game where they will dearly miss J.J. Watt. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has been terrific, but the offense can be maddeningly inconsistent. Houston is averaging only 19.8 points over its last four contests.

Tennessee is 4-0 against the spread in its last four home games, and I won’t be surprised to see them crush Houston.

Pick: Tennessee -3

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Chicago is starting to meet expectations, with three straight wins, and the Bears scored 31 points in a win oer Dallas most recently. Green Bay brings the opposite profile. Neither the defense nor Aaron Rogers is performing well for the Pack, and Chicago can win straight up.

Terrible offensive production resulted in four straight losses for Chicago earlier this season, but Mitchell Trubisky is making haters nervous with improved play. He tossed three touchdowns and posted his second consecutive triple-digit passer rating last week.

The Bears converted seven of their 12 third-down attempts against Dallas, Anthony Miller has emerged as viable complement to Allen Robinson at receiver and Green Bay’s faulty defense sets up well for continued success.

Chicago's fourth-ranked scoring defense is also more than capable of keeping a sagging Green Bay offense in check. The Bears have lost top linebacker Roquan Smith, but All-Pro defensive lineman Akiem Hicks will return Sunday after a lengthy absence. Green Bay gained only 341 yards against Washington last week, and continued its trend of consistently finding third-and-long situations. The Packers have averaged only 12.5 points in four games against teams with a scoring defense ranked in the top eight.

I expect another offensive dud from Green Bay on Sunday.

Pick: Chicago +4.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Washington Redskins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Points may be difficult to come by given the poor state of both offenses, and injury-ravaged Philadelphia should not be laying this many points to any team after they trailed the Giants 17-3 at halftime last week..

Philadelphia enters on a 1-4 ATS run in its last five games. Quarterback Carson Wentz was throwing the ball to Boston Scott and Greg Ward Jr. on Monday night, because of a lack of healthy bodies, and the stagnant offense relied upon tight end Zach Ertz (nine catches). Washington must do everything possible to make other players beat them.

I expect a low-scoring game. Washington’s offensive line has played better over the last three games, which paved the way for a 248-yard rushing output at Carolina two weeks ago, and the defense is improving, as well. The Redskins recorded four sacks and held Green Bay to 341 total yards most recently. They have surrendered only 19.8 points per game since Week 6, and Washington has a legitimate chance to win if the defense continues to perform well.

Pick: Washington +4.5

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5), Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

A pair of top-five defenses will square off in the Steel City, and I give the advantage to Buffalo because of Josh Allen. The second-year quarterback can extend plays with his versatility. He has posted 17 passing touchdowns and eight rushing scores this year, and the Bills aren’t utilizing a limited offense like Pittsburgh has with undrafted rookie Devlin “Duck” Hodges.

Pittsburgh exits a dull performance against Arizona’s 32nd-ranked defense last week, with only 275 total yards gained, and Buffalo is capable of wreaking havoc upon that vanilla approach. The Bills rank fourth in yardage allowed per play (4.8).

Buffalo gained confidence going toe-to-toe with Baltimore last week. The Bills held the league’s top offense to only 118 rushing yards, and we saw how San Francisco responded after a similar performance the week before (a 48-point outburst at New Orleans). The Bills can run the ball effectively (they rank fifth with 135.3 rushing yards per game), and I will go with the better overall team.

Pick: Buffalo +1.5

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8), Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Following a tough loss to San Francisco, New Orleans can rebound against an Indianapolis team heading the wrong direction.

After opening the year 5-2, Indianapolis has lost five of its last games. The Colts dropped two straight by double digits, before a dismal performance against Tampa Bay last week, when they surrendered 542 total yards. The Colts ran 19 fewer plays, quarterback Jacoby Brisset completed only 19 of his 36 passes against the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense and the declining signal caller owns only a 54% accuracy rate over his last three games. Receiver T.Y. Hilton has been out because of a calf injury, and the Colts have become particularly thin at receiver, as Chester Rogers and Parris Campbell went down in recent weeks.

Drew Brees was back to top form last week, when he threw for 349 yards and five touchdowns, and New Orleans will be eager to correct some defensive issues in its home finale. The Saints are ranked fifth against the run, even though they surrendered 162 rushing yards to San Francisco, and this matchup should play to the Saints' advantage, given Indianapolis’ passing woes. The final score won’t be close in my estimation.

Pick: New Orleans -8

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James Scully's 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 15: 41-31 (4-1 last week)