Scully’s NFL Week 15 picks: New Orleans will bounce back vs. KC

Favorites rebounded with a 9-6 record against the spread in Week 14. Underdogs still maintain a healthy advantage for the season, with a 111-90-2 ATS record.

Here are my picks for Week 15.

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are making an impact, as Chicago has scored 75 points in its last two games, and the Bears are cranking up their defensive intensity.

Minnesota played well offensively against Tampa Bay in Week 14, but the Vikings are reeling from a specials-teams collapse. Kicker Dan Bailey cost them, with three missed field goals and an extra point that went wide. Minnesota may stick with Bailey, but it won’t have confidence in the kicking game.

Cairo Santos has made 18 straight field goals for Chicago. More importantly, defensive lineman Akiem Hicks is back and healthy for the Bears and will wreak havoc. Linebacker Khalil Mack is also expected to be at full strength, after a shoulder issue in recent weeks, and Chicago had two takeaways and seven sacks in Week 14.

The Chicago run offense disappeared during the Bears' six-game losing streak — they averaged 52.6 rushing yards per game over a seven-game stretch — and Montgomery missed a Week 10 loss to Minnesota because of a concussion. Chicago has 309 rushing yards over its last two games, and Robinson caught nine passes for 123 yards and a touchdown in Week 14.

Minnesota is too inconsistent. The Vikings are eligible to regress, following a respectable offensive performance, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.

Free pick: Chicago +3.5

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco may rush for more than 250 yards against the hapless Cowboys defense, and the 49ers will surely pressure Andy Dalton in passing situations. It promises to be a long afternoon for Dallas, the NFL’s worst team against the spread (3-10 ATS).

The Niners enter ranked fifth in total defense (316 yards allowed per game). They didn’t allow a touchdown last week, but Washington gave their offense fits and scored a pair of defensive touchdowns. That won’t be an issue in Week 15.

Dallas snapped a two-game losing skid in Week 14, but don’t be misled by the 30-7 margin. The Cowboys had trouble stopping anemic Cincinnati in the first half.

After the Bengals fumbled on their second snap, they drove 53 yards, 60 yards, and 77 yards on the next three possessions. They should have led at halftime. However, the Bengals scored only one touchdown because they fumbled away every other drive. They still easily outgained the Cowboys and held Dallas to only 272 total yards.

The Dallas run defense is a glaring weakness, and it ranks last in the NFL (162.7 rushing yards allowed per game). Running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson may put up career-best numbers for San Francisco.

Free pick: San Francisco -3

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints

New Orleans got away from its identity and its nine-game win streak ended in Week 14. Taysom Hill didn’t look to scramble from the pocket, and Philadelphia won the time-of-possession battle, even though it scored only seven points in the second half.

The Saints will have a different mindset against a vulnerable Kansas City defense.

In Week 14, Miami marched up and down the field against Kansas City in the second half. The Dolphins scored 17 fourth-quarter points, even with their top three receivers sidelined.

Kansas City’s offense remains awesome, but opponents have covered in five straight, because of the Chiefs' defensive woes.

New Orleans can exploit the Chiefs with long, time-consuming drives. The Saints rank second in time of possession and the Week 15 matchup will be in the balance late if they can keep Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the sideline for long stretches.

The Saints are no pushover defensively. Kansas City finds ways to win close games, but it won’t cover in New Orleans.

Free pick: New Orleans +3

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James Scully's NFL ATS record heading into Week 15: 16-26