Scully's AFC Championship Game pick: Bills capable of upset

Reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City, which won an NFL-best 14 regular season games, will host its third consecutive AFC Championship Game on Sunday. It’s been a 27-year absence for Buffalo, which last competed for a Super Bowl berth in 1994.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes must clear concussion protocol, after he was knocked out of the Divisional Round win over Cleveland, but I expect him to play.

The teams met back in Week 6, on a rainy and windy evening in Buffalo, when Kansas City pulled away in the second half for a 26-17 victory. The Chiefs piled up 245 rushing yards, and Bills quarterback Josh Allen was held to a season-low 122 passing yards.

Buffalo has to be on its game

Kansas City can flip the switch at any moment, so Buffalo will need to keep its foot on the gas pedal to have any chance.

The Chiefs score points in bunches. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce enter in terrific form, and Mahomes is so resilient that he rallied Kansas City from double-digit deficits in every postseason win last year.

Kansas City enters with the top-ranked passing offense, and the pass rush is not a strength for Buffalo’s defense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who gashed the Bills for 161 rushing yards in Week 6, is expected to be back, after he missed the last few games.

While Kansas City doesn’t have an elite defense, the experienced unit can still rise to the occasion. Defense was key to the championship run last year, and Kansas City made an important fourth-quarter stop last week, when it forced Cleveland to punt while the Chiefs were clinging to a five-point lead.

Bills defense has improved

After the Bills lost running back Zach Moss late in the season, Buffalo abandoned the run during its 17-3 Divisional Round win over Baltimore.

The Bills also delivered an outstanding defensive performance against Baltimore’s formidable run-based offense, and they will face a different challenge against Kansas City’s passing attack.

Since the Bills lost on a Hail Mary pass at Arizona in Week 10, they have won eight straight games. They’ve held the opposition to an average of 17 points per game during the win streak, with an average margin of victory of 21 points.

The opportunistic Bills are rolling at the right time.

Wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who the Bills acquired during the offseason, made an enormous difference. A top-five receiver, Diggs stretches the field and draws double teams, which allows Buffalo’s passing game to thrive under Allen, who has improved significantly in accuracy and confidence.

Kansas City has been terrible against the spread

Kansas City is banged up.

Along with a head/neck issue, Mahomes is dealing with a toe injury that threatens his mobility. Starting cornerback Bashaud Breeland is also in the NFL's concussion protocol.

Since the midway point of the season, Kansas City has played to the level of its competition. The Chiefs win but fail to cover the point spread.

It’s remarkable how bad they’ve become for bettors, with a 0-8-1 record against the spread (ATS) since Week 8, especially given how well Kansas City performed last year, with a 7-1-1 ATS record over the same stretch.

Buffalo enters on a 9-1 ATS run, covered its last four road games, and I’m expecting a high-scoring affair.

The Bills can match Kansas City's offense and have averaged 38 points over the last eight games. And they’ll be motivated, after a season-worst offensive performance against Kansas City in Week 6.

Buffalo is capable of an upset, and if Kansas City’s form holds, the Chiefs will win by less than a field goal.

Free pick: Buffalo +3