Scott Shapiro’s Thursday Night Football preview: Browns-Steelers

It was an extremely entertaining Week 10 in the National Football League, which included a pair of double-digit favorites losing outright, as well as several games that came down to the final seconds.

I lost a tight one in Oakland on Thursday night and went 3-3 in my Six Pack after a fortunate victory  Monday night in San Francisco. One of these weeks I will correctly analyze a Dallas Cowboys game. "America's Team" was great to me last year but has been a bankroll killer in 2019.

Week 11 commences with an AFC North clash between the surging Pittsburgh Steelers and the disappointing Cleveland Browns. Both teams head into the weekday affair off tightly contested home victories Sunday afternoon.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX

The Steelers lost future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a season-ending elbow injury in their Week 2 loss to Seattle, and it appeared they were in for a long 2019, but they have rattled off four straight wins and are in the thick of the playoff hunt with seven games to play.

Pittsburgh's recent success can be attributed to its defense. The Steelers have yielded 17 points or fewer in four of their last six games, including a dominating performance at home in Week 10 against the Rams. Their pass rush ranks third in the NFL in sacks (33), led by T.J. Watt, who is fifth in the league (9.5). Watt, Bud Dupree and Cameron Heyward have made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks, and they are likely to do so again in Week 11 against a Browns offensive line that has been a major weakness all season long.

The Steelers secondary was a solid unit when the season commenced, but the acquisition of defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins has made a massive difference. Fitzpatrick has made a number of big plays at free safety and has already compiled five interceptions since he arrived in the Steel City in late September.

Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph has played like a first-year signal caller in his first several games as a starter, but he may have turned a corner in the second half of their game against Los Angeles on Sunday. Offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner has not asked Rudolph to do much, and he has for the most part avoided big mistakes.

Pittsburgh is likely to lean on running back James Conner on Thursday night. Conner is set to return to the lineup after he missed two games with a shoulder injury. The Steelers lead back killed the Browns last season, when he tallied 281 yards in their two contests and should be setup for success behind an offensive line that will get starting guard Ramon Foster back Thursday night.

The Browns were 14-1 to win the Super Bowl before the start of the 2019 campaign, but little has gone as planned for Freddie Kitchens in his first full season as head coach. They rank third in the NFL in penalties committed, have a turnover differential of minus 8, have a poor offensive line and quarterback Baker Mayfield has regressed quite a bit after an incredibly strong rookie season. They ended a four-game losing streak by grinding out a win at home versus Buffalo on Sunday, but they still have a load to correct on both sides of the football.

Pittsburgh has thrived in the role of road underdog. The Steelers are 7-1 against the number as a road dog of seven points or fewer over the last three seasons, including an outright win against the Chargers on October 13.

Look for the Steelers front four to dominate the line of scrimmage against the subpar Browns offensive line and make just enough plays on offense to spring the minor upset at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mike Tomlin's squad has not lost to the Browns since October 12, 2014. They'll keep the streak going to start Week 11.

Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5

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Scott Shapiro’s 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 11: 40-31-1 (Last week 3-4-1)