Rodgers and Mahomes co-favorites in Super Bowl MVP betting, but where is the value?

We are hurtling toward the Super Bowl, and just four teams remain in the hunt for this year’s slice of history.

The Packers, Bills, Chiefs, and Buccaneers are all still in with a chance to write their name into the record books, but there may be extra value to be had if you are placing a bet — particularly if you believe this year’s title is going to the Chiefs or Packers.

The Chiefs and Packers are co-favorites to win the Super Bowl, at +200, but dig a little deeper, and you can bet quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers to take home Super Bowl MVP at +300.

Quarterbacks on the winning team scoop this award 55% of the time, since it began in 1967 with Green Bay QB Bart Starr. In recent history, that trend is even stronger, as winning quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP 10 times in the last 14 years — a strike rate of 71%.

If you’re staring into your crystal ball and it’s spitting out either the Chiefs or the Packers as Super Bowl winners, there’s value in betting on the Super Bowl MVP. But ahead of the NFC and AFC Championship Games this weekend, who is better value?

Aaron Rodgers (+300)

Rodgers has led Green Bay to Super Bowl victory before. Ten years ago, at Super Bowl XLV, the Packers defeated the Steelers, 31-25, and Rodgers was crowned Super Bowl MVP, after he threw for 304 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. It gave him a QB rating of 111.5.

Rodgers has shown no signs of slowing down, as he has had arguably one of the best seasons of his career, despite edging closer his 40th birthday.

Rodgers’ regular-season passer rating of 121.5 is just a point off the record, which was set by Rodgers in 2011. This regular season, he threw for 4,299 yards, completed 70.7% of his passes, threw 48 touchdown passes, and was intercepted just five times. It was a scintillating season for Rodgers, who carried that form into the playoffs, where he took apart a red-hot Rams defense for 296 yards and two touchdowns through the air. He also added another score on the ground.

It has been a huge season for Rodgers, who now has his eyes set on a dream clash with Tom Brady in the NFC Championship Game.

Patrick Mahomes (+300)

Mahomes is an interesting bet for Super Bowl MVP, since the Chiefs may have to get there without him. He is still in the NFL's concussion protocol after an injury against the Cleveland Browns, when a tackle by linebacker Mark Wilson glazed his eyes.

The reigning Super Bowl MVP overcame a 10-point deficit in the last six minutes to lead the Chiefs to a  title 12 months ago. Mahomes completed 26 of his 42 passing attempts for 286 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, for a passer rating of 78.1, but still did enough to scoop Super Bowl MVP.

Mahomes threw for 4,740 yards during the regular season, completed 66.3% of his passes, and threw for 38 touchdowns and six interceptions. He ended the season with a passer rating of 108.2. He is aiming to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl MVP since Terry Bradshaw won in 1979 and 1980.

The betting suggests the Chiefs have a marginally better chance of making the Super Bowl than the Packers, but I think the value lies with Rodgers. If he can get past the Bucs, I fancy him to guide Green Bay to victory in the Super Bowl and scoop the Pete Rozelle Trophy.

Davante Adams (+1500)

Because I fancy the Packers, there is some value with Davante Adams in this market, as well.

The trends are against him. Wide receivers have won the award just 13% of the time, and in the last 14 years, only Julian Edelman and Santonio Holmes managed to earn the award at wide receiver.

Adams can buck the trend.

He hauled in 115 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns during the regular season. He led the NFL in yards per game and receiving touchdowns. He also set a franchise record for receptions and tied the franchise record for receiving touchdowns in a single season.

Adams surpassed 100 receiving yards in seven games this season and grabbed nine receptions for 66 yards and a TD against the league’s best corner, Jalen Ramsey, when the Packers faced the Rams in the playoffs.

Adams could be the difference maker in the Super Bowl and is a value at these odds.