Ravens vs. Steelers: The best betting props for Week 12

So much for a Thanksgiving triple-header. The NFL has announced the Thursday night game between the Baltimore Ravens and unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers will be moved to Sunday. The decision was made out of an abundance of caution after seven members of the Ravens tested positive for COVID-19 or were in close contact with those who did.

The Steelers are a dominant 10-0, and beat the Ravens 28-24 in Baltimore after being behind 17-7 at half-time. They come into this game off the back of two big wins against the Bengals and Jaguars, and are aiming for their first Super Bowl since 2008.

We nailed all four prop bets on Monday Night Football (another reason to be thankful!) so much like the Steelers we come into this game in some red-hot form.

Lamar Jackson passing yards

Lamar Jackson’s record-breaking MVP season feels a long way away now. The Ravens signal caller has come back down to earth with a serious bump after shooting the lights out last season.

Week 11’s match with the Titans was the sixth time this season Jackson has thrown for less than 200 yards, and he’s probably still having nightmares after the Week 8 clash with the Steelers. Jackson threw just 13 completions that day for 208 yards, got sacked four times, fumbled another three, and turned over possession twice!

The Steelers were able to get at Jackson from the start and hit the star QB nine times in total.

Pittsburgh has given up an average of just 203.5 yards per game through the air, the third strongest pass defence in the NFL, and they will be out to get Lamar Jackson again on Sunday.

Pick: Under 197.5 passing yards (-115)

Diontae Johnson receiving yards

Are people sleeping on Diontae Johnson or am I just not talking to the right people?! Only 14 players in the league have had more targets than Johnson, despite the fact he was hampered by ankle and toe injuries in Weeks 3 through 8. Back to full fitness in the last three weeks, he has gotten 37 targets and racked up 24 catches for 304 yards.

The Week 8 clash in Baltimore was one were Johnson struggled with injury and only caught one pass for six yards on three targets. In 2019 he caught four passes for 54 yards against Baltimore, but this is a Ravens team that was just torched for 113 yards by the Titans WR Corey Davis.

JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a toe injury towards the end of the Week 10 game with Jacksonville and sat out practice on Monday. Although it appears he will suit up on Sunday, he may not be 100%, which will only benefit Johnson as Big Ben looks his way.

Pick: Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)

Marquise Brown receiving yards

Hollywood Brown has been far from the star of the show this season and his downward trend looks set to continue on Sunday. Brown opened up the season with five catches for 101 yards against the Browns, but it has been all downhill since. Lamar Jackson’s performances this year have regressed so it’s no surprise Brown has also taken a hit.

At first glance the line looks more than doable for someone of Brown’s quality, but since the Ravens came off the bye in Week 7, Hollywood has managed to get over this line just once, with 38 yards off three catches against the Colts. He was held to three yards by the Steelers, 14 yards by the Patriots, and in Week 11 failed to catch any of his three targets against the Titans.

Brown was held to two catches for 15 yards in Week 17 last season against Pittsburgh and in Week 8 this season caught one pass for three yards. In his last four games Hollywood has averaged more than four targets a game, but that isn’t translating into yards. The Under is the play.

Pick: Under 36.5 receiving yards (-115)

Chase Claypool receptions

While Marquise Brown is sliding down in our estimations, Chase Claypool is heading up. He’s having one of the best rookie seasons at wide receiver and has benefitted from a ton of targets from Big Ben.

Through the last four weeks, Claypool has seen a huge 40 targets – turning them into 21 receptions for 226 yards and four touchdowns. He has been one of Big Ben’s favourite targets and will continue to see plenty of opportunities as opposition defences struggle to contain the trio of Claypool, Johnson and Smith-Schuster.

In Week 8 at Baltimore, Claypool hauled in five catches off nine targets and we should expect similar numbers again here as Ben Roethlisberger takes to the air in Pittsburgh. In the last few weeks Claypool’s yards per reception hasn’t been huge (averaging 11.4 yards through four weeks) and the Ravens allow just 7.8 yards per target to wide receivers this year, so while the receiving yard line of 49.5 looks pretty bang on, I’m keen to get him on side in terms of number of receptions.

Pick: Over 4.5 receptions (-110)