Patriots will have trouble covering spread against surging Jets

It’s an AFC East battle this week on Monday Night Football. The game has gained a bit of intrigue after Sam Darnold and the Jets stunned the Cowboys 24-22 last week to pick up their first win of the season.

New England Patriots at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Darnold gives the Jets hope

With Luke Falk and Trevor Siemian in control, the Jets were absolutely ghastly on offense, with only two touchdowns and a field goal in three games. With Darnold back in the fold, hope is renewed again.

Nonetheless, this is a tough matchup for Darnold, who recently vanquished mononucleosis. You cannot find a more tangled thicket of a secondary to throw into (29 passes defended and 10 interceptions through six games). While Darnold represents a significant upgrade, it’s hard to convince yourself that Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas are going to find much room to operate against the Patriots secondary.

Bell could be in for a long day

The Jets have been looking for Le’Veon Bell to regain his 2017 form (2016 would be even nicer), but it’s going to be difficult to operate behind this papier-mâché offensive line. The job will be even more challenging against the Patriots front. Michael Bennett will sit this one out with a team suspension, but John Simon has arguably been better anyway. Linebacker Jamie Collins has had a Defensive Player of the Year-type season. He leads the team in tackles and has three interceptions. It all adds up to the Jets putting 13 to 20 points on the board.

Expect big things from Brady

When the Patriots have the ball, there will be interesting battles all over the field. The Patriots offensive line has been middle of the pack this year and has done a pretty good job working in center Ted Karras and left tackle Marshall Newhouse. All five starting linemen grade in the 60s on Pro Football Focus. They will face a Jets defensive line that is very good at stopping the run but decidedly worse at getting to the passer. The latter is not particularly promising when facing Tom Brady, but all is not lost for New York.

Jets are banking on Mosley

C.J. Mosley’s return should be key for the Jets defense, assuming he is 100%. Behind safety Jamal Adams, Mosley is the second-best player in the unit, and you’d much rather trot him out there than Neville Hewitt or Blake Cashman. With little help in the way of a consistent pass rush and a crumbling offense offering no hope to win week to week, the Jets’ secondary has given great effort.

Furthering the Jets’ case, the Patriots receivers are banged up. Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett are all questionable or limited practice participants, and tight end Matt LaCosse is doubtful.

I expect the Patriots to force Darnold into turnovers, but I like New York’s run defense and “no quit” attitude to continue when the offense places them in bad situations.

If you’re a totals player, the Under looks mighty tempting. I look for an entertaining game, but ultimately expect the Patriots to carry their undefeated streak into Week 8.

Pick: Jets +10

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