Patriots vs. Falcons: TNF betting odds, preview, and pick

A rematch of Super Bowl LI is set for Week 11 of the NFL season when the New England Patriots visit the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football.

Belichick undefeated against NFC South opponent

As head coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick is a perfect 6-0 against Atlanta, including the now-infamous 38-24 come-from-behind victory over the Falcons in the Super Bowl in February 2017.

His latest matchup with Atlanta will mark the first without former New England quarterback Tom Brady, who spearheaded the aforementioned comeback — the largest in Super Bowl history.

This time out, rookie Mac Jones will get the start for the 6-4 Patriots, who just demolished the Cleveland Browns, 45-7, in Foxborough.

In the surprising onslaught, Jones racked up three touchdown passes, while rookie Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 100 yards and two scores against a team many pegged as a Super Bowl contender in the early part of the season.

The defense also stepped up to hold the shorthanded Browns to 217 yards of offense, including 73 passing yards from quarterback Baker Mayfield. 

Cleveland was just 1-of-11 on third down, while New England went 7-of-9 and scored on all four drives in the first half to build a quick 24-7 lead.

Falcons collapse against former head coach

The Falcons hit a low point on Sunday, when they faced the 7-2 Dallas Cowboys and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who was fired as Atlanta's head coach midway through the 2020 season following an 0-5 start. 

In the 43-3 beatdown in Dallas, quarterback Matt Ryan struggled to get anything going and finished with a paltry 9.1 quarterback rating, behind 9-of-21 passing, 117 yards, and two interceptions.

Quinn had the Cowboys defense in peak form, as the unit held Atlanta to a season-worst 11 first downs and allowed the Falcons to convert on just one of 11 third-down tries.

Atlanta's 214 yards of total offense were just one yard shy of its season low against Carolina, as well.

On defense, the team was just as ineffective. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 296 yards and two scores, and running back Ezekiel Elliott reached the end zone twice, as the Cowboys piled up more than twice as many yards as Atlanta on offense.

With nearly a minute left in the first half, Dallas led 28-3 and padded the score with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown to hand the Cowboys their biggest halftime lead (36-3) since 1971.

With the loss, the Falcons dropped to 4-5 and sit at the bottom of the NFC South standings.

Patriots and Falcons betting trends

• New England is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall
• Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss
• The Over is 5-1 in New England's last six games overall
• The Under is 6-2 in Atlanta's last eight games as a home underdog
• New England is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings in Atlanta

Belichick has the edge over flattened Falcons

After a 2-4 start, the Patriots have won four straight and are beginning to look like a vintage Belichick squad.

The defense ranks second in the league in points surrendered (17.7) and is tied with Dallas for the fourth most takeaways, while the run game is humming behind Damien Harris and Stevenson.

The Falcons own the league's second worst scoring defense and have yet to find consistency with their rushing attack.

Belichick will continue to do what he does best, which is beat up on Atlanta, and will roll to his fifth straight win of the season.

Score prediction: Patriots 28, Falcons 20

NFL Week 11 pick: Patriots -5.5 

Patriots vs. Falcons Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Falcons to cover the spread and for the score to go Over the projected total.