Patriots vs. Falcons: The best Matt Ryan player prop bets for TNF

Everyone remembers the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl collapse by Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons in 2017. Even worse for Ryan, he has never defeated the New England Patriots in four career attempts.

Will he be able to pull off the big upset on Thursday Night Football at home?

We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best player prop bets for Ryan below.

Over/Under 1.5 passing touchdowns

It has been a little bit of a boom-or-bust season for Ryan this year. He has six games of two or more passing touchdowns, but also two games with zero passing touchdowns, including last week against the Dallas Cowboys.

This also applies to his four career games against the Patriots. Ryan has two games of two passing touchdowns, one game with one passing touchdown, and one game with zero passing touchdowns.

The Patriots defense ranks second in the NFL in points allowed per game and fourth in the league in passing touchdowns allowed. New England has only surrendered two or more touchdowns through the air in four out of 10 games and has allowed one total passing touchdown in the last two games combined.

This matchup is set up to be a blowout in the Patriots' favor, and there will likely be some opportunity for Ryan to get some late touchdowns against a softer defense. However, there is also the likelihood that Ryan gets pulled in a blowout, like last week, so I must play the Under here.

Pick: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-155)

Over/Under 253.5 Passing Yards

This number is pretty much right on Ryan’s season average of 252.7 passing yards. He has five games Over this number and four games Under this number.

Ryan has averaged 284 yards per game against the Patriots in his career, despite never winning and struggling to find the end zone.

The Patriots defense ranks eighth in the NFL in passing yards allowed, at 220.1 yards per game. It has been four weeks since New England let a quarterback go Over this number, but Dak Prescott did manage to throw for 445 passing yards.

The Falcons will need to air it out to have any chance, with running back Cordarrelle Patterson likely sidelined.

I like Ryan to find the yardage through the air, even if he fails to find the end zone and finish drives.

Pick: Over 253.5 Rushing Yards (-115)