Patriots vs. Bills: NFL Week 13 MNF betting odds, preview, and pick

A critical battle in the AFC East will wrap up Week 13 of the NFL season this Monday night, as the New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills.

The Patriots will try to ride their winning streak to seven games in this one, while a victory for the Bills would put them back in first place in their division.

Oddsmakers have essentially labeled this game a coin-flip, with Buffalo standing as modest home favorites. But we’ll try to make sense of things below as we dissect the matchup.

New England Patriots (8-4) at Buffalo Bills (7-4), 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

When the Bills have the ball

The Bills’ offense is tied for second in points per game (29.6), and ranks fifth in yards per game (389.3). The chief catalyst is quarterback Josh Allen, who averages 279.2 yards per game through the air, and another 34.8 yards per game with his legs.

However, Allen has lacked consistency over his last four games, and his team has suffered as a result (2-2 record). Allen has tossed eight touchdowns in that span, along with an alarming seven interceptions. He’s also been sacked nine times over his last four starts.

The New England defense – tops in football by points allowed per game (15.8) – has the ability to make for a miserable Monday night for Allen. This unit is fifth in the NFL by sacks this year (30), and have forced 17 turnovers during their six-game win streak.

When the Patriots have the ball

Though the Pats’ defense has done its fair share of the heavy lifting during this six-game run, Bill Belichick’s offense also deserves a ton of credit for the staggering +153 point differential in that span.

Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is blossoming into a star, tossing nine touchdowns and only two interceptions over his last six contests. He’s also completed 69.2% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt in that stretch, compiling a 106.2 passer rating.

Jones will have to answer the bell here against the NFL’s stingiest defense by yards allowed per game (275.2).

Patriots vs. Bills injury report

Patriots and Bills betting trends

• The Patriots are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog
• The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games
• The road team is 22-8-2 ATS in the last 32 meetings between these two teams
• The Under is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last six Monday games

The verdict

Don’t be shocked if this one goes right down to the wire. It makes sense to grab the points with the Patriots considering just how dominant they’ve been over the last month and a half.

Score prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 23

NFL pick: Patriots +3

Patriots vs. Bills pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Bills to win and cover the spread, and the game to go Over the projected total.