Over/Under on Trevor Lawrence touchdown passes set at 24.5

As expected, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Now it’s time for the difficult predictions to begin.

Let’s take a look at the posted total for Lawrence’s touchdown passes in the upcoming season, which has been set at 24.5, with some extra juice shaded to the Over.

If you think Gardner Minshew stands a chance to retain his starting job, even for a short while, as the hopeless Jags ease Lawrence into the league, then the Under is the easy bet. If you believe Lawrence will be a Week 1 starter, however, let’s dive deeper into this number.

Can Lawrence's production carry to the NFL?

At Clemson, Lawrence was an offensive phenom. He completed 90 touchdown passes in 40 games. That is a rate of 2.25 touchdowns per game, which out would come to 38 touchdowns over the course of a 17-game NFL season.

The problem with this simple analysis is the NFL is far more difficult than college, and Lawrence’s offensive weaponry, relative to his defensive opponents, is going to be  inverted from what he enjoyed at Clemson.

How does Lawrence stack up against the NFL's best  QBs?

Only 12 NFL quarterbacks surpassed 24.5 touchdown passes last year.

That appears to be a positive sign for Under bettors, but, of the quarterbacks who started at least 14 games, only Philip Rivers (24 touchdowns), Jared Goff (20), Teddy Bridgewater (15), Daniel Jones (11), and Cam Newton (eight) failed to get past 24.5 touchdown passes.

Rivers had a noodle for an arm in 2020 and is now retired. Goff was traded, Bridgewater was traded, Jones has to perform in 2021 or will lose his job, and Newton could lose his job to a rookie. Lawrence is a better talent than each of those quarterbacks.

How have rookie QBs fared recently?

The last consideration is the success of rookie quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow averaged only 1.3 touchdowns per game last year, with one of the worst offenses in the league. Justin Herbert, however, averaged just more than two TDs per game, on his way to Rookie of the Year.

In 2019, top rookie quarterback Kyler Murray averaged only 1.25 touchdown passes per game, while in 2018, Baker Mayfield averaged 1.92. Patrick Mahomes sat on the bench during his rookie year, in 2017. The sample size is too small to use past rookie success.

How much will Meyer lean on Lawrence?

The question to ask is whether head coach Urban Meyer will utilize his shiniest weapon in the red zone, or if he will rely on rookie running back Travis Etienne to get the ball in on the ground.

Lawrence is tremendously talented, and while he will face an uphill climb in 2021, he is going to be given every opportunity to show why he was the first pick and evaluated as a generational talent.

Today’s NFL continues to shade toward more passing, so if Lawrence is as good as advertised, he will take advantage and cash this Over.

Pick: Over 24.5 touchdown passes