Odds say defenses and special teams will be shutout at Super Bowl LV

There is no greater and more extensive proposition market than the Super Bowl, and one of the more interesting gameplay props that doesn’t focus exclusively on an individual player’s statistics is whether a defensive or special teams touchdown will be scored.

The current price on this to transpire in Super Bowl LV is +225, while the ‘No’ is priced at -275. Let’s break this prop down and see where the value lies.

Defensive and special team touchdowns are a rarity at the Super Bowl

Over the last five Super Bowls, a defensive touchdown has occurred twice, with the Denver Broncos recovering a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50, and the Atlanta Falcons snagging an 82-yard interception return touchdown in Super Bowl LI against the New England Patriots.

No special teams touchdown has occurred since Super Bowl XLVIII, when Percy Harvin of the Seattle Seahawks returned the second half kickoff 87 yards for a touchdown against the Denver Broncos.

Rule changes have cut into special teams scoring

For both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns have been rare in 2020. With the change to the NFL’s rules back in 2016 allowing teams to take touchbacks back to the 25 yard line in the interest of player safety, less teams opt to return the ball off a kickoff, thus reducing the likelihood of such an event.

The Bucs have zero kick or punt return touchdowns, and have blocked just one kick and just one punt on the season, neither of which resulted in a touchdown. The Chiefs have zero blocks on the season, but can be credited with one punt return touchdown and one kickoff return touchdown on the year.

Tampa Bay's defense has been shut out this season 

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs have not scored a defensive touchdown all year. For as good as they’ve been on that side of the ball that is a bit surprising, but the numbers tell the story. They are a team that relies on sound defense and forcing offenses off the field the traditional way. The Chiefs aren’t doing a whole lot more, with just two defensive touchdowns on the year.

Looking at both teams’ propensity for scoring on defensive and special teams, we see that only four total non-offensive touchdowns have been scored this year by these teams combined (and all of them by the Chiefs).

Bet against a non-offensive touchdown

Considering Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes are two of the very best quarterbacks in the game, and with the added focus that ball-carriers ought to have in protecting against fumbles, I would argue that the likelihood of a non-offensive touchdown are even higher. Bet the "no defensive or special teams touchdown" at -275 and trust the math gets you the cash.