NFL win totals: No soft landing for New England

NFL regular-season win totals are available at BetAmerica, and it’s the beginning of a new era in New England. I expect a hangover effect from losing Tom Brady, and will play New England to go Under nine wins.

Patriots are in rebuilding mode

This is a rebuilding year. A Patriots’ offense that lacked firepower last season has lost not only Brady, who posted a 249-75 record as a starter, but top wide receiver Phillip Dorsett (signed with Seattle).

The mighty defense could also take a step back, with a number of key contributors leaving, and there are holes on the offensive line and special teams.

The competition may not be able to keep Bill Belichick down for multiple seasons, but I am betting against New England having a winning record in 2020. The Hall of Fame coach went 5-13 in New England before Brady took over and has a 55-64 record without Brady under center.

Buffalo and Miami pose a legitimate threat to New England

New England has won the AFC East for 17 straight years, so the motivation could not be any greater for their divisional foes, and Buffalo and Miami have significantly upgraded their rosters during the offseason.

The Bills went 10-6 last year, and with the additions of Stefon Diggs, Quinton Jefferson, Vernon Butler, and Mario Addison, they will be improved. The Dolphins opened the pocketbook, signed six major free agents, and Miami owns a boatload of picks in the NFL Draft.

Fans may not recognize the Patriots in 2020

The Patriots’ personnel losses are staggering. They include starting center Ted Karras; linebackers Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, and Elandon Roberts; defensive tackle Danny Shelton; kicker Stephen Gostkowski, and special teams standout Nate Ebner. They must try to build the roster in the later rounds of the NFL Draft, with one first-round selection and no second-round picks (barring a trade).

The schedule will do New England no favors 

New England will take its lumps from a difficult schedule in 2020. Last season the AFC East played the weak NFC East and the AFC North, which had only one good team (Baltimore). The Patriots add two of the tougher divisions, the NFC West and AFC West, to the schedule in 2020, with road games at Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle. They also have Baltimore at home.

The Patriots don’t have a quality quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham the heir apparent presently, and I can envision them being one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL.

Given their standard of excellence over the last 20 years, it’s easy to understand why New England’s win total is overvalued — they present a difficult challenge for oddsmakers. However, they will be down this season, and the vibe will change once losses begin to mount.

NFL free pick: New England Under 9 wins

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