NFL Week 9: Panthers vs. Chiefs odds, pick & preview

The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs will host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, in a clash of teams in very different stages of development.

The Chiefs are 7-1 and 6-2 against the spread, while the Panthers are just 3-5 and 4-4 ATS. With the Saints and Buccaneers ahead in the NFC South standings, desperation is certainly on the Panthers’ side.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers

Kansas City's defense has stepped up in 2020

The Chiefs looked vulnerable when they gave up 40 points in a loss to the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, but they have otherwise been the best team in the NFL and have given up no more than 20 points in their other seven games.

They are known for their offense and Patrick Mahomes’ electric play, but it is the defense that is contributing most to their success against the spread. The Kansas City defense has given up the third-fewest points per play in the NFL, the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt, and is fifth in takeaways per game. Defensive tackle Chris Jones continues to be a disruptor and Tyrann Mathieu has excelled in the secondary.

Bridgewater has found his groove for Carolina

The Panthers have played better than their record shows. After two close-fought losses to start the season, they went on a three-game win streak, which included an impressive victory against the Arizona Cardinals. Things have since turned south, with three straight one-score losses.

Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been excellent and ranks second in completion percentage (71.6%) and fifth in yards per attempt. The loss of running back Christian McCaffrey has not been felt as dramatically as some believed, but the Swiss Army Knife of a running back hopes to return this week against the Chiefs.

Panthers and Chiefs injury report

The rest of the Panthers roster has been relatively healthy, with the exception of defensive lineman Kawann Short, who is out for the season. Rookie defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos is questionable, but Brian Burns has stepped up to be an excellent option on the line.

For the Chiefs, the biggest concern is tackle Mitchell Schwartz’s back injury. Schwartz has consistently been a top 10 tackle in the league, and while he wasn’t missed against the New York Jets, Kansas City would like him back as quickly as possible.

The Chiefs will continue to play without wide receiver Sammy Watkins and have sent defensive end Alex Okafor to the IR. The Chiefs are better with Watkins on the field, but they have enough weapons and have learned to play without him, thanks to the elite play of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Ball control is key for Carolina

The Panthers will presumably rely more on ball control, in order to keep the Chiefs offense off the field.

These teams are tied for 15th in the league in time of possession, but the Chiefs rushing defense is their one vulnerability. The Chiefs rank 29th in rush yards surrendered per game and 28th in yards allowed per rush. This has occurred despite the fact that teams are usually chasing a lead that Mahomes and the offense has established.

The Chiefs have also had a fairly easy schedule and might be overrated as Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs also have a bye next week, so don’t be surprised if some let-up occurs if they're leading by multiple scores.

The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs and have only lost  by one score once this season. They have an extra couple days of rest, after a Thursday-night game last week, and this line is a few points too many for such a competitive group.

Score prediction: Chiefs 31, Panthers 21

NFL pick: Panthers +10.5

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