NFL Week 8: Colts vs. Lions odds, preview & prediction
Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass. (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)
October 29th, 2020
The Indianapolis Colts (4-2) will head to Ford Field this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) to take on the Detroit Lions (3-3). The Colts were installed as slight favorites coming off a bye week, but are Philip Rivers and company worth a wager in this spot? Let’s dig into the matchup.
The ground game may go missing
Running backs have not figured prominently in either the Colts’ or Lions offense this season. Rookie Jonathan Taylor has received under 15 carries a game for Indy and is averaging a modest 4.1 yards per rush.
Veteran tailback Adrian Peterson has taken the bulk of the carries for Detroit (80), but is averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt in his 14th NFL campaign.
The Lions’ defense has been vulnerable against the rush (26th at 131.8 yards allowed per game), but their mid-week acquisition of Cowboys defensive end Everson Griffen should help alleviate some of those issues.
EDGE Everson Griffen's Grading in 2020:
— PFF DET Lions (@PFF_Lions) October 27, 2020
56.6 OVR
53.5 Run Defense
61.8 Pass Rush
57.8 Tackling
282 Snaps
12.9% Pressure Rate (26th among EDGE, 2nd on #Lions)#OnePride https://t.co/k1BWLFKNpQ
The Colts’ run stoppers are among the elite in the NFL (88.33 yards allowed per game, third). Indy’s defense could be invigorated if linebacker Darius Leonard (groin) returns following a two-week absence.
Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford have not excelled in 2020
Rivers’ passing yards per game (266.3) and completion percentage (69.7) in 2020 are above his career norms (260.1 and 64.8, respectively), but his dreadful 7-6 touchdown-interception ratio has been holding his team back.
Matt Stafford has a 94.4 passer rating this year, slightly above his career figure of 89.5. However, he’s faced just one passing defense rated in the Top 10, and that was the Bears (eighth) in Week 1.
1. I’ll never get tired of watching Matt Stafford whip a sidearm throw (especially in slow-mo)
— Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom) October 25, 2020
2. Couldn’t be more on brand for the Falcons lolpic.twitter.com/dVgWBahWxW
Colts and Lions statistics
| Team | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards Allowed | Rushing Yards Allowed |
|---|
Indianapolis Colts | 265.2 (10th) | 98.0 (28th) | 199.7 (2nd) | 88.3 (3rd) |
Detroit Lions | 245.7 (20th) | 108.5 (18th) | 248.7 (20th) | 131.8 (26th) |
No-fly zone in Detroit?
The Colts boast one of the NFL’s most efficient pass-stopping units. Only Washington (185.9) has allowed fewer yards per game through the air than Indianapolis (199.7) in 2020.
To that point, Xavier Rhodes has done really well against Kenny Golladay in their careers.
— Horseshoe Guys Podcast (@HorseshoeGuys) October 27, 2020
In three career matchups against Babytron, Rhodes has allowed 3-of-9 targets (33.3%) for 31 yards (10.3 avg.), 0 TD, 3 FD, 2 YAC, and has 1 INT. https://t.co/RWqT8qIPdf
The Lions are 20th in the same department (248.7) but could be bolstered if cornerback Desmond Trufant (hamstring) is able to suit up for the first time since Week 4.
Several Colts trends favor the Under
The Under is 4-1 in the Colts’ last five games in a dome and in their last five games against NFC opponents. Indy has gone below the total in five of their last six games after eclipsing 30 points in their previous contest.
Score prediction: Colts 24, Lions 17
NFL pick: Under
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