NFL Week 5 Free Picks

The Jaguars bring their top ranked defense to Kansas City on Sunday looking to slow down Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes while the Falcons take on the Steelers in two of the best matchups during NFL Week 5. I break down these two scintillating matchups along with all the other great matchups on October 7th. Good luck!

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 In Week 4, Cincy rallied to beat the Falcons 27-26 in Atlanta. That game might be the turning point that leads to the Bengals upsetting the Ravens and Steelers for the NFC North Division. Miami’s not ready to battle a hot Bengals team on the road, especially after nearly being shutout last weekend against New England. I’ll go with the fave.

NFL Week 5 Pick: Bengals -6.5

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Cleveland Browns Cleveland gets kudos for almost pulling off the upset over the Oakland Raiders in their Week 4 matchup. Baltimore is a much better team than Oakland, and that's something I didn't think I'd say this season. The Browns can’t afford any mistakes on offense if they hope to beat a good Baltimore defense. At this point in his career, we can’t expect quarterback Baker Mayfield to avoid making mistakes.

NFL Week 5 Pick: Ravens -3

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers -7 I’m not sure what’s going on with the Giants. On paper, New York should be much more explosive on offense than it actually is. Bad times for New York should continue on Sunday because Carolina is 4-0 ATS against the spread in their last 4 after a bye. This is a seemingly hefty line, but until we see the Giants play to their potential, they're not a safe play. Carolina grinds out the win and cover here.

NFL Week 5 Pick: Panthers -7

Green Bay Packers -1.5 at Detroit Lions Green Bay’s 22-0 win over Buffalo in Week 4 doesn’t impress me. What does impresses me is how Detroit is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus rival NFC North teams. When they play division rivals, they bring the heat. Lions beat Packers straight up.

NFL Week 5 Pick: Lions +1.5   

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers -3 Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is playing at an MVP level this season. Unfortunately, it hasn’t mattered because Atlanta’s defense is awful and now faces a Pittsburgh team led by a future hall of fame quarterback who knows this is a must-win game. I’m backing Roethlisberger and the high powered offense of the Steelers.

NFL Week 5 Pick: Steelers -3  

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs -3 The reason the Chiefs are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS is because quarterback Patrick Mahomes makes plays that no other quarterback in the NFL can. Although Mahomes could engineer those plays again in Week 5, the Jaguars are by no means an easy team to beat defensively. Mahomes is barreling right in to a defense that has made short work of almost every quarterback they've faced this season, and are the top ranked scoring defense with just 14.0 points allowed this season. Bortles has a chance to move the chains this week against a relatively limp Kansas City defense that almost gave up the Monday Nighter against Denver in the final minute. I’m taking a shot on the Jags money line. Kansas City simply feels like a team on the verge of a loss.

NFL Week 5 Pick: Jaguars ML

Oakland Raiders at L.A. Chargers -5.5 One of the harder games to pin down, largely because it features two of the worst defenses in the league. When two teams are this prone to surrendering scoring chances, I have to take the points.

NFL Week 5 Pick: Raiders +5.5  

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles -3 This is another game that could go either way, and we could talk all day about how rough Philly looked last week, or the fact that Minnesota still can't figure out how to run the ball. But desperation wins out here for me. I like Minnesota with the points in a must-win moment.

NFL Week 5 Pick:  Vikings +3

L.A.  Rams -7 at Seattle Seahawks I’m not like every other NFL handicapper who feels like the Rams will easily cover the spread on Sunday. Seattle’s defense has played well in their last 2 games. Although that’s not enough for me to back the Seahawks, especially with Earl Thomas out for the season, the fact that the home team in this series is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings gives me enough courage to back Seattle here. Division games sometimes bring out the best - and the worst - in teams.

NFL Week 5 Pick: Seahawks +7