NFL Week 3 Picks: Daniel Jones in for tough test against Bucs

It’s a big weekend in the NFL, as some teams look to make sure they don’t start 0-3, and others look to move to 3-0. More importantly, many teams will debut signal callers that they did not start the season with—some because of injury, and some because it’s time for the baton to be passed. In fact, four of the five games in the late afternoon will feature a quarterback making his first start of the season. This can make for a bit of an unpredictable weekend. Luckily, we have some insight for you on the late afternoon games, along with some plays to hopefully help make sure you get a win this weekend.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-2), 4:05 PM EST, FOX

The Arizona Cardinals are favored in a game. You read that correctly. Granted, the line swung nearly six points due to the fact that Cam Newton will miss the game with an injury, but that is beside the point. Kyler Murray has already improved the offense from their abysmal showing last year, and has developed a solid chemistry with Larry Fitzgerald. They were competitive against the Ravens last week, and will now face a defense that has only forced one turnover through two games.

On the flip side, rookie Kyle Allen will make his debut on the road in place of Newton, and he played well last season in his only start on the road against the Saints. That said, with the Panthers also missing starters on defense, the Cardinals should be able to do just enough to win this one and cover.

Pick: Cardinals -2

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Bucs (-5.5), 4:05 PM EST, FOX

The Eli Manning era has ended, and Daniel Jones’ time has come. His first test: a road game against the Bucs, who have made a rapid improvement under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Despite allowing 31 points in week 1 to the 49ers, the defense only allowed one offensive touchdown, and they kept the Panthers out of the end zone last weekend, thanks to a goal-line stand in the fourth quarter.

After holding Christian McCaffrey to just 53 total yards last week, Tampa Bay will look to lock down Saquon Barkley and force Jones to beat them. That’s unlikely to happen; Bowles is 5-0 against rookie QBs in his career. Throw in the fact that the Sagarin ratings show the spread on this game should be around 10 points, and it looks very likely that the Giants QB may change, but the results will not.

Pick: Buccaneers -5.5

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3), 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The Texans don’t like facing good quarterbacks. They can overcome good defenses and strong rushing attacks, but an elite signal caller has long given them problems. Enter Philip Rivers. The veteran refuses to fade into the night, while 2004 classmates Eli Manning and Ben Rothlisberger move to the bench this weekend. Last week was a penalty-filled dud for the Chargers, but they had two touchdowns negated by flags. Rivers will be licking his chops at the thought of the Texans secondary trying to cover Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Thankfully, it won’t be on his shoulders alone this weekend, as the Texans 25th-ranked rush defense will have to slow down the 10th ranked rushing attack of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson.

On the flip side, the Texans will be looking to try to keep Deshaun Watson upright, having given up 10 sacks through two weeks. The Chargers’ defense will likely be pinning their ears back, and it could be a long day for the Texans if they’re unable to slow them down. One final note: in their last 12 games after failing to cover the week before, the Chargers are 10-1-1 ATS.

Pick: Chargers -3

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5), 4:25 PM EST, CBS

I would have picked the 49ers to win this one even before Rothlisberger was lost for the season with an elbow injury. The Niners have the fourth best rushing attack in the NFL, and the seventh best offense overall. Meanwhile, the Steelers are no longer doing the things that made them the Steelers. The defense is allowing the fourth most yards in the league, and they are rushing for only 56.5 yards per game, the fourth fewest in the league. Throw in the fact that new Steelers QB Mason Rudolph will be making his first start on the road, and the lack of a run game becomes an even bigger issue. The 49ers should be able to do what they want offensively in this one, putting even more pressure on Rudolph and leading to what should be a runaway victory. This spread should be much bigger, so cash in on it.

Pick: 49ers -6.5

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5), 4:25 PM EST, CBS

This is the only game on the list where the new quarterback looks to have a legit shot to win. Teddy Bridgewater looked very mediocre last week in relief of Drew Brees, who injured his hand on the first series of the game. Now, they have to hope Bridgewater takes a step up with a full week of practice, or that Taysom Hill can be a source of problems for the Seattle defense. Both are a step back from the future Hall of Famer.

Seattle is 2-0, but they’ve won by a combined three points, so they haven’t been a juggernaut themselves. They may also be without Rashaad Penny, who injured his hamstring on Friday during walk-through and is now listed as questionable. Penny rushed for a 37-yard touchdown last weekend and was a vital part of their comeback win over the Steelers. That said, Russell Wilson should be able to cause more than enough problems for the same Saints defense that has struggled against good quarterbacks this season, and without Brees out there to lead one of his famous comebacks, it should be a solid win no matter who is running the New Orleans offense. Two final things to keep in mind: New Orleans has failed to cover in their last seven games, and the favorite is 9-2 in the last 11 games between these two teams.

Pick: Seahawks -4.5

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