NFL Week 2 betting tips: Cook's struggles will continue against Colts

Tom Brady is washed up. Aaron Rodgers is back. The 49ers are doomed. The Jags are Super Bowl contenders.

Yeah, yeah.

As always, Week 1 of the new NFL season was followed by knee-jerk reactions, excited hyperbole and wild overreaction. And I’m not here to kill your buzz – we’re all excited that the NFL is back and there’s nothing better on a Sunday afternoon than a feast of football. But when it comes to betting props, park the patriotism and put aside the pride. We are more interested in the cold hard numbers, and seeing if the stats can suggest who will BOOM and who will BUST in Week 2.

BOOM: Devin Singletary (Over 54.5 rushing yards -120)

The Miami Dolphins coughed up a staggering 217 yards to the Patriots in week one, with New England averaging more than five yards every time they ran the ball. The Dolphins defence ranked 27th in the regular season last year, and early signs suggest they’re going to get beat up plenty of times in 2020 as well.

Devin Singletary played plenty of snaps for the Bills last week, but his workload was split with rookie Zack Moss, which may explain his generous line here. He ran for just 30 yards last week but now goes up against a soft Dolphins defence that he racked up 70 yards against in 2019. I expect Singletary to get double-figure touches in this one and that should carry him over 54.5 yards again.

BUST: Patrick Mahomes (Under 280.5 passing yards -115)

OK, calling star QB Patrick Mahomes a bust isn’t really accurate, but in the context of this column that is exactly where he lies. The line looks high.

Mahomes looked good in Week 1 – but not 2018 MVP good. He threw 32 passes with 24 completions for 211 yards, at an average of 6.6 yards per attempt. This was a game where rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire got 25 carries and Darrel Williams picked up seven. Is Andy Reid moving to a run-heavy offense?

Even if he’s not, I’m backing a bust for Mahomes. In his two outings against the Chargers last season he managed 16 completions for 174 yards followed by 19 completions for 182 yards. Joey Bosa & Co. can make life uncomfortable for the Chiefs.

BOOM: N'Keal Harry (Over 41.5 receiving yards -115)

Cam Newton attempted just 19 passes in the Patriots' win over Miami in Week 1, and that run-heavy offense may put you off N’Keal Harry BOOMING this weekend – but Newton should have more opportunities to air it out against the Seahawks.

Seattle’s defence ranked 27th in passing yards last season and gave up 450 yards to Matt Ryan last week in their win against the Falcons. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage all put 100+ yards on the Seahawks last week, and while N’Keal Harry may not hit those lofty heights, 42 yards is very achievable.

Harry was listed as questionable this week but is expected to suit up and will be one of Newton’s top targets alongside Julian Edelman.

BUST: Dalvin Cook (Under 71.5 rushing yards -120)

Cook had a frustrating day against the Packers last week and it could be a similar story against the Colts here. Cook rumbled for 50 yards on 16 carries against Green Bay as the Vikings found themselves behind 22-10 at the half and 29-10 going into the final quarter.

Cook and his mega-money contract will certainly improve on that in what is expected to be a tight game with the Indy, but will he improve to the tune of 72 yards? I don’t think so. The Colts’ defence ranked seventh in the NFL last year against the rush, giving up just 97 yards a game, and they kept that going in Week 1, allowing the Jags just 91 yards on the ground.

Despite being Minnesota’s lead back, the match-up doesn’t inspire confidence and I’m happy to back Cook to BUST this Sunday.