NFL Week 11: Titans vs. Ravens odds, preview and pick

The Baltimore Ravens are likely still drying out from last Sunday night’s drenching at Gillette Stadium, and now will face a smashmouth Tennessee Titans team that will have an increased sense of urgency to get things back on track after losing three of their last four games.

At 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS, the Ravens are tied for second place in the AFC North, but are 6.5-point favorites against the 6-3 Titans (3-6 ATS), who are tied for first place in the AFC South.

The Ravens have struggled on offense in 2020

Bettors have long since lived by the mantra that defense wins championships. But for this matchup, the question is does defense cover the spread? Tennessee's offense is superior to Baltimore's in 2020, achieving a higher EPA on dropbacks and comparable EPA on rush attempts as the Ravens. They average only 23 yards per game more, but that is a result of their efforts to slow games down with power running back Derrick Henry. When they decide to throw, Ryan Tannehill continues to complete passes at a better than expected rate.

The Ravens, meanwhile, have struggled on offense thanks largely to regression from Lamar Jackson, but continue to play well defensively, coming in first in the league in points allowed per play.

Baltimore is banged up

 For the Ravens’ defense to be successful, however, they will need their key players to play. Calais Campbell, Derrick Williams, and Jimmy Smith all sat out last game against the New England Patriots, and several others were banged up. As a result, the Ravens gave up 5.5 yards per rush to Patriots’ leading rusher, Damien Harris. While Harris is an excellent runner, he isn’t on the level of his fellow Alabama alumni, Henry. The Ravens might be in for a long day trying to stop the oversized runner with backups and hurting starters.

The Tennessee Titans have plenty of potential missing players of their own, but unless late week reports state otherwise, early indications are that most of the banged up players from Week 10’s matchup against the Colts will recover in time to see the field in Week 11.

Oddsmakers are giving Jackson too much benefit of the doubt

When trying to pick out a winner in this matchup, it’s important to account for perception. The -6.5 being offered on the Ravens is certainly an enticing number for the average bettor looking to lay a touchdown. Lamar Jackson is the defending NFL MVP and as such, the perception surrounding his playing ability is currently higher than his actual performance in 2020.

The Ravens don’t give up big plays, but the Titans don’t necessarily succeed because of big plays, and should have success operating the style we’ve come to know of them.

Score prediction: Titans 27, Ravens 24

NFL pick: Titans +6.5

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