NFL Week 11: Packers vs. Colts odds, preview, and pick
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) celebrates during an NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals. (Photo by MSA/Icon Sportswire)
November 19th, 2020
The NFL Sunday late-afternoon slate features a battle of division leaders as the current class of the AFC South – the Indianapolis Colts (6-3) – host the NFC North-leading Green Bay Packers (7-2) at Lucas Oil Stadium (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).
Which team will continue their reign atop its respective division, and which will fall back toward the pack? Here’s our wagering preview.
Both teams are struggling with consistency
Considering both clubs are guaranteed to leave this game with winning records, it’s been surprisingly hard to gauge how both the Packers and Colts will fare on a week-to-week basis.
Green Bay is 3-2 straight-up and 2-3 against the spread over its last five games. They were embarrassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 38-10, in Week 6 before posting a double-digit victory against the Houston Texans. The Jekyll-and-Hyde act continued in Week 8 with a puzzling loss to Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings before a rebound victory over the depleted San Francisco 49ers. The Packers exit a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, albeit by just four points.
9th touchdown reception of the season for @tae15adams!@packers take a 24-20 lead with 9:03 remaining. #GoPackGo
— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2020
📺: #JAXvsGB on FOX
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/6yCTrUNGY8 pic.twitter.com/Qez1HKt6So
The Colts’ straight-up and spread records over their last five games are identical to the Packers’ records. It’s impossible to say with certainty whether the offense that piled 34 points on the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago will show up on Sunday, or if we'll see the version that scored just 10 points against the Baltimore Ravens one week earlier.
Strength will meet strength when Green Bay has the ball
It will be interesting to see how Aaron Rodgers and company – third in points per game this season (30.8) – will fare against the Indy’s fourth-ranked stoppers by points allowed per game (19.7).
Xavier Rhodes this season:
— PFF (@PFF) November 13, 2020
🔒 78.3 PFF Grade (4th)
🔒 66.7 passer rating allowed (10th) pic.twitter.com/TPgFdPnMkP
Rodgers has 13 touchdowns over his last four games, but the Colts’ pass defense has allowed just 11 touchdowns through the air all season. Packers tailback Aaron Jones could have a hard time opening things up for his signal caller, as Indy is third in the NFL in rushing defense this year (91.8 yards allowed per game).
Packers and Colts statistics and rankings
| Team | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards Allowed | Rushing Yards Allowed |
|---|
Green Bay Packers | 274.3 (6th) | 121.4 (11th) | 225.1 (13th) | 110.8 (12th) |
Indianapolis Colts | 262.4 (10th) | 105.8 (20th) | 198.7 (2nd) | 91.8 (3rd) |
Rivers, Colts offense should flow nicely
Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has been in good form over his last four games, producing a 7-2 touchdown-interception ratio and recording a passer rating above 105 in three of those contests.
Philip Rivers has accomplished so much in his career except hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Will the Colts compete for a playoff run this year? pic.twitter.com/wqt6wacLwK
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 13, 2020
Indy’s 10th-ranked aerial attack should have no trouble moving the chains against a Green Bay defense that’s 20th in yards allowed per play in 2020 (5.8).
Trends favor the home team
The Colts are 13-5 against the spread over their last 18 games against teams with winning records. They’ve also covered in five of their last seven games as the betting favorite.
Predicted score: Colts 27, Packers 21
NFL pick: Colts -2.5
Wager on Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season now at BetAmerica!
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