NFL Week 11: Falcons vs. Saints odds, preview, and pick
Quarterback Matt Ryan (2) of the Atlanta Falcons drops back to pass. (Photo by David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire)
November 20th, 2020
The Atlanta Falcons (3-6) and the New Orleans Saints (7-2) will renew acquaintances at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday afternoon (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX). Unlike the previous two meetings in New Orleans between these NFC South rivals, the Saints are only nominal favorites due to their injury woes.
Will the Falcons spring the upset, or will the Saints post their fifth win in six games against Atlanta? Here’s our wagering preview.
Brees not the only Saints starter ailing
Saints quarterback Drew Brees suffered a rib injury in last week’s victory over the San Francisco 49ers and missed the entire second half. Jameis Winston didn’t have to do much in relief in the 27-13 decision, as he went 6-for-10 with 63 yards. But he won’t get the starting nod for Week 11, as multi-talented quarterback Taysom Hill will make his first NFL start instead.
A note: Taysom Hill is eligible to be utilized at your TE spot on @ESPNFantasy for this week.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 20, 2020
We will reassess that for Week 12, but for those looking to add a TE (or QB), Hill is a great start for this week at TE.
Running back Alvin Kamara (foot) went from limited in practice on Wednesday to out on Thursday, casting some doubt on his ability to factor into this Sunday tilt. Tight end Josh Hill and wide-out Tre’Quan Smith are both in concussion protocol – only the latter has practiced in any capacity through Thursday.
There’s also significant injury trouble for the Saints on the other side of the ball. End Cameron Jordan (back), nose tackle Malcom Brown, and cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) have all been limited in practice this week.
Falcons are flying high
Hill could have his work cut out for him against an improved Falcons defense that’s surrendered an average of just 22.5 points in four games following the firing of head coach Dan Quinn.
👀 NFL Films shows Matt Ryan saying “don’t score, don’t score, don’t score” in the huddle before Todd Gurley’s late touchdown last Sunday, which left time for the Lions to drive for a winning TD pic.twitter.com/pIALP8Nig3
— Justin Felder (@Justin_FOX5) October 28, 2020
The Falcons are 3-1 straight-up and against the spread since Quinn was dismissed. They also might have beaten Detroit in Week 7 if halfback Todd Gurley had fallen down instead of scoring a touchdown late. Atlanta is helped by the fact that they exit a bye week.
Falcons and Saints statistics and rankings
| Team | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards Allowed | Rushing Yards Allowed |
|---|
Atlanta Falcons | 290.0 (2nd) | 106.8 (18th) | 310.3 (31st) | 99.7 (9th) |
New Orleans Saints | 252.3 (15th) | 120.8 (13th) | 231.4 (15th) | 76.8 (2nd) |
Atlanta can attack vulnerable Saints pass stoppers
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, leading the NFL’s second-rated aerial attack, is capable of carving up a New Orleans defense that’s 15th in preventing passing yards this year. The potential return of team receiving leader Calvin Ridley (ankle), who missed Week 9, would be a boon.
Most 15+ yard receptions:
— PFF (@PFF) November 15, 2020
1. Calvin Ridley - 21
2. Allen Robinson II - 20
3. Travis Kelce - 19 pic.twitter.com/o37jz25BvX
Trends make appealing case for underdog
Trends bettors should note that the Falcons are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight road games. They’ve also covered in five of their last six games as underdogs.
The Saints are not as good a bet at home as one might think – their spread record over their last 17 games as a home favorite is a lackluster 5-12.
Predicted score: Falcons 24, Saints 23
NFL pick: Falcons +3.5
Wager on Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season now at BetAmerica!
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