NFL Hot Seat: Things are heating up for Kingsbury and McCarthy

As is the case every NFL season, at least one head coach is expected to get the boot before the end of the calendar year.

In 2021, a number of coaches will feel the fire, following an offseason that saw seven men — none of which have prior NFL head coaching experience — fill coaching vacancies across the league.

According to TwinSpires Sports, the two coaches most in danger of getting fired in 2021 are Kliff Kingsbury of the Arizona Cardinals and Mike McCarthy of the Dallas Cowboys. Both share +700 odds as the person most likely to lose their job first.

McCarthy faces pressure to win now in Dallas

In 2020, McCarthy accepted his role in Dallas after taking a one-year hiatus from coaching in the NFL. The former Super Bowl-winning leader of the Green Bay Packers accomplished a measly 6-10 record with America's Team, after injuries decimated his roster and his defense sputtered.

The most devastating blow to Dallas' season came in Week 5, when franchise quarterback Dak Prescott went down with a compound fracture and dislocated ankle. Andy Dalton, now a member of the Chicago Bears, filled in for Prescott for the remainder of the season and went 4-5 as a starter, and the Cowboys finished third in the perennially substandard NFC East.

With one of the worst defenses in Cowboys history, McCarthy reportedly lost his locker room by midseason, with unnamed players describing the staff as "totally unprepared."

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones stuck with previous head coach Jason Garrett through nine pedestrian seasons, so McCarthy may be safe for at least another year.

Nonetheless, the 78-year-old businessman's patience for another Super Bowl run may be wearing thin, and with the amount of talent the Cowboys possess on offense, there’s no reason this team shouldn't dominate its division and contend for a title.

Kingsbury's reign on the verge of collapse

In arguably the most difficult division in the league, the NFC West, Kingsbury has generated modest success in two seasons with the Cardinals.

With recent Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray and top receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona improved upon a 5-10-1 record in 2019 to 8-8 in 2020. However, the Cardinals narrowly missed the postseason for the second straight year under Kingsbury and lost five of their final seven games to quash their playoff hopes.

In Kingsbury's defense, Murray played injured toward the end of the season, but that doesn't excuse one glaring issue with the team — a league-leading 7.1 penalties per game.

Kingsbury jumped straight from college football to NFL head coach in 2019, after he compiled a 35-40 record at Texas Tech. His offensive scheme made him an attractive hire, but like McCarthy in Dallas, the young Cardinals frontman has too much talent at his disposal to warrant the results he has produced thus far.

If Kingsbury doesn't deliver on a postseason berth in Year 3, the front office may be wise to take its chances on a new regime.

Other NFL coaches on the chopping block

Third-year coaches Vic Fangio of the Denver Broncos and Zac Taylor of the Cincinnati Bengals are also at risk of unemployment, along with fourth-year Bears coach Matt Nagy.

Fangio (+800 odds) is 12-20 since joining Denver in 2019, and is likely in for another shaky season considering Denver's quarterback situation. Unless Aaron Rodgers miraculously forces a trade to the Mile High City, the team will rely on one of Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock to lead the offense, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Taylor is 6-25-1 in Cincinnati and might have achieved a better outcome last season, had 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow stayed healthy. He'll have a slightly improved offensive line to work with this season, plus Burrow's college teammate Ja'Marr Chase at receiver, but another dismal season will likely be the end of Taylor's tenure in Cincy.

Nagy is another offensive mind who has yet to produce as expected. The Bears are 28-20 under his guidance, but continue to eke their way into the postseason, only to lose in the Wild Card round.

Of all the incoming first-year hires, the only one whose job may be in jeopardy is David Culley (+1400), who became the oldest first-year head coach, at age 65.

Culley inherited a mess of a situation in Houston and is likely a placeholder until the front office can find their long-term fit for his role. Still, it's difficult to see the Texans firing their head coach midseason for the second straight year, after they let go of longtime coach Bill O'Brien after his 0-4 start in 2020.

As for the coaches with the greatest job security in 2021, reigning Super Bowl winner Bruce Arians, six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick, 2019 Coach of the Year John Harbaugh, Sean McVay, Sean Payton, Andy Reid, and Mike Tomlin each own the second-longest odds to get fired at +5000.

Only Sean McDermott, a candidate for 2021 Coach of the Year, has longer odds (+6600) to find himself jobless.

Last year, the fifth-year coach signed a contract extension through 2025 and guided the Buffalo Bills to a franchise-best 13-3 record and an AFC Championship Game appearance for the first time since 1993.