NFL betting trends: Is MetLife Stadium cursed?
We've reached Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season, and we have a strong set of data to determine how the year is trending.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 14 and beyond.
Road underdogs off a loss
This has been a solid trend all season long. In Week 13, teams that were road underdogs following a Week 12 loss went 3-2 ATS in five such games. Since the start of the 2019 season, teams that are road underdogs following a loss are 80-53-5 ATS.
In Week 14, the Cardinals travel to play the Giants, the Broncos travel to play the Panthers (although they may not be an underdog at kickoff), the Jets travel to play the Seahawks, and the Texans travel to play the Bears. Taking every team in this scenario has consistently proven to be a winning strategy.
MetLife is cursed
Everyone remembers when a black cat ran across the football field at MetLife on November 4, 2019 during a Monday Night football game between the Giants and Cowboys. Since and including that night, the Giants are 3-7 ATS at MetLife Stadium.
"Go, Go, Go!": Stadium erupts as football fans go wild for black cat's 'touchdown' as feline interrupts Monday Night Football. https://t.co/iEkMgCq4vZ pic.twitter.com/bQNU4bO6SL
— ABC News (@ABC) November 5, 2019
Since MetLife Stadium was built, the Giants are 34-49-2 ATS at home. In addition, Kliff Kingsbury is a road warrior as discussed in a previous version of this column. Kingsbury is 8-4-2 ATS on the road. The Cardinals also fit into our first trend we talked about this week.
Aaron Rodgers: King of the North
There is no doubt that the Packers are going to win the NFC North yet again this year. Aaron Rodgers is 117-82-5 ATS on his career, but he is even more dominant in divisional games (45-26 ATS). The Lions, on the other hand, have been a mediocre 6-9-1 ATS in divisional games since Jim Caldwell left the team in 2018.
Is Kyle Shanahan overrated?
There's little question that Kyle Shanahan is a quality coach. However, he gets a little too much love from oddsmakers when his team is playing at home. When the 49ers play at home as favorites under Shanahan, San Francisco is a miserable 3-12-1 ATS.
Meanwhile, the Washington Football Team is red hot and has covered three consecutive games. Another interesting trend is that the 49ers have lost four consecutive games against the spread following a Monday night football game.
Don't doubt Josh Allen
Josh Allen has continued to prove his doubters wrong, as he is now 12-6-2 ATS as an underdog. The Bills QB is coming off an extremely impressive 375-yard and four touchdown performance on Monday Night Football against the 49ers.
@ the haters who say Josh Allen is inaccurate pic.twitter.com/W3EYNb6yd7
— Heather Monahan (@HeatherMonahan_) December 8, 2020
The Steelers also have their issues in the month of December. After losing on Monday night to the Washington Football Team, the Steelers have now lost five consecutive games against the spread in the month of December.
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