NFL betting trends: Flores and 'Fitzmagic' keep rolling
Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)
December 1st, 2020
We've reached Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season — well, except for the Steelers-Ravens game that may or may not happen Wednesday night — so we have a strong set of data to determine how the year is trending.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 13 and beyond.
Divisional home underdogs
Divisional games have been tight, even when the bad teams play the good teams. This is especially the case when the underdog is at home. Home underdogs are 14-6 against the spread this season. In Week 13, the Texans (+3) host the Colts, the Falcons (+3) host the Saints, and the Cardinals (+3) host the Rams.
Flores and 'Fitzmagic' are money
Head coach Brian Flores has made quite the miraculous turnaround in Miami. Since he started the 2019 season 0-4, Flores is 17-6 ATS with his guys in place.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has also been excellent. Since Week 13 of last season, the Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in games he has started. We don't know if "Fitzmagic" will be the starting quarterback this week, but Flores has an impressive recent record even without Fitzpatrick at quarterback.
Mike Gesicki said Ryan Fitzpatrick told him he’s getting this throw no matter what. And that decision was made before they came out the huddle, before he saw the man to man defense. Great play call, but I’m still a little uncomfortable with Gesicki as this team’s slot WR weapon. pic.twitter.com/A7KCx3Hkyr
— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) November 30, 2020
In Week 13, the Dolphins will host the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor is 7-10 ATS in games without quarterback Joe Burrow.
Another trend to favor Miami is that the home team has covered in four consecutive games between the two teams.
Stars aligning for Zimmer
Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has only had one losing season in Minnesota, and it came in his first year.
Minnesota is 5-6, so it is vital for the Vikings to secure a win this week, to avoid a losing season and stay in the playoff race.
Since he took over the Vikings in 2014, Zimmer is 66-40-1 ATS. When he is at home, he is 34-19-1 ATS. When Zimmer is a favorite, he is 38-23-1 ATS. When he is playing a team outside the NFC North, he is 45-21-1 ATS.
In Week 13, the Vikings will host the hapless Jaguars. When the stars align for Zimmer (home favorite against non-divisional opponent), he is an astounding 19-7-1 ATS.
The Jaguars are 17-24-2 ATS since 2018 and they have lost four consecutive road games ATS against a team with a losing home record.
L-O-S-E lose, lose, lose
The New York Jets are 0-11, and they are likely not ready to win any games, as long as Adam Gase is head coach. They almost as bad ATS (3-8).
In Week 13, the Jets will host the Las Vegas Raiders. Because the Raiders are coming off a blowout loss to the Falcons, this spread will be much lower than what it should be. The Raiders are still 7-4 ATS and 4-2 ATS in road games this season.
The Raiders have won five consecutive games ATS against AFC opponents. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Jets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight December games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning road record.
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