NFL betting trends: Bet Belichick, fade Brady

Now that we've completed two weeks in this unprecedented NFL season, we have a few more statistical trends to parse. Let's break down the numbers and determine which trends you should take advantage as we head into Week 3.

Scoring is on the rise

In last week’s column, we discussed how scoring typically falls off from Week 1 to Week 2 of the season. However, we should have taken the uncertainty of this season into effect. In Week 1, the Over went 9-7 with an average of 47.4 points per game. In Week 2, the Over climbed to 11-5 with an average of 53.3 points per game.

 

Even though the defenses are likely to catch up as time goes on, it is not time yet. The current Week 3 slate has an average total of 47.5 points as it stands right now. Even if the average points per game drops back down to Week 1 numbers, you should still lean towards the Over in most of these games.

Take advantage of home-field advantage

We also brought up the home-field advantage in last week’s column. In Week 1, the home team went 10-6 ATS and 8-8 ML. In Week 2, the home team went 8-8 ATS and 11-5 ML. Home favorites are currently 11-10 ATS and 16-5 ML, while home underdogs are 7-4 ATS and 3-8 ML.

Based on these numbers, we should continue to look into betting home underdogs ATS and maybe pound the home favorites on the ML. 13 of the 16 Week 3 games will have home favorites. This leaves some good opportunities to create a nice ML parlay together.

New starting quarterbacks are struggling

Yet another trend we discussed last week was the fact that new starting quarterbacks were struggling early in a season without a preseason or much of an offseason at all. In Week 1, teams with new quarterbacks went 2-4 ATS and 2-4 ML. In Week 2, these teams went 4-2 ATS, but also 2-4 ML.

In Week 3, I expect the ML trend to continue and the ATS trend to drop back to Week 1 status. Teams are still adjusting from the lack of preseason, as you saw with a rash of injuries last Sunday. We now have to add the Denver Broncos to this list of seven teams with new quarterbacks.

Bet against Brady, not Belichick

Brady has struggled recently ATS. However, this does not apply to Belichick now that the two have split. Since 2004, Belichick is 13-8 ATS without Brady as his quarterback. The Patriots take on the Raiders this week and the trends are fire for betting on Belichick in this one.

Since 2004, the Patriots under Belichick are 114-59-6 ATS against teams that missed the playoffs the year before. They are also 104-63-4 ATS against opponents that are not in their division. When you combine games that are both non-divisional games and against a team that missed the playoffs the year prior, they are 64-25-1 ATS. They are also 40-15 ATS following a loss. Need I say anymore?

Don't overreact 

As we enter Week 3 of the NFL season, 11 teams find themselves with a 0-2 record. However, those teams should not be written off when looking at your bets. Since 2004, 0-2 teams facing teams with a better record are 53-37-2 ATS.

This week finds the Dolphins, Texans, Giants, Vikings, Falcons, Jets, Panthers, Lions, and Broncos in that scenario. These teams find themselves as an average of 4.5-point underdogs. Look to see quite a few of these teams to bounce back and definitely expect them to keep these games close.