Monday Night Football betting tips: Daniel Jones will wilt against the Bucs

We are into November and while the nights are getting cooler, the NFL is heating up! Tom Brady leads the 5-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the hopeless New York Giants on Monday Night Football, with the Bucs favored by 13 points.

Giants QB Daniel Jones will have hopefully recovered from the embarrassment of his stumble on the way to the end zone last week, but he’s now about to enter a new world of hurt against an elite defence.

As we hurtle towards another epic MNF clash, here are the four best prop bets at MetLife Stadium.  

BUST: Daniel Jones (Under 219.5 passing yards -115)

I really don’t want to pick on Danny Dimes too much after his encounter with the turf last week, but this is a prop that is simply a must-bet. Jones is averaging a lowly 6.1 yards per attempt this season and has thrown for under 190 yards in four of his last five games. Now he faces Tampa Bay!

The Buccaneers have given up just 291 total yards per game this season, which is the third strongest in the league. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Jeff Driskel all threw for less than 176 yards against Tampa Bay this year. The Bucs have the second-highest pressure-rate and the fourth-highest sack-rate, so Jones isn’t going to get much time behind a poor offensive line.

The Tampa Bay run defense is the best in the league, and they are 13-point favourites, so you’d expect there to be plenty of volume for Jones, but even if he is racking up the attempts I don’t see it translating to big yardage. Take the under all the way.

BOOM: Mike Evans (Over 48.5 receiving yards -115)

With Chris Godwin on the shelf with a broken finger and Antonio Brown still inactive, the stage is set for a huge performance from Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans.

In the three games Godwin has missed this season, Evans has had at least eight targets in each game and totaled 19 receptions for 267 yards. The small concern is he is going to be shadowed by James Bradberry who kept Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, and Allen Robinson all under 35 yards, and has outdueled Evans before.

But that small doubt can be cast aside as Tom Brady is going to have to look Evans’ way, and that should equate to a minimum of eight targets again. Evans is averaging just under 13 yards per reception this year, so four catches may be enough to beat the line.

BOOM: Evan Engram (Over 3.5 receptions -120)

Engram hasn’t shone particularly bright this year, and it was hard enough for me to give him a BOOM this week, which is why I’ve opted for the prop bet on receptions rather than yardage.

While his yardage has been poor – he’s been held for under 35 yards in five of his seven games this year – he is likely to get plenty of looks on Monday. In fact, Engram has averaged over six targets a game this season and is likely to benefit even more on Monday from the Giants' lack of a run game since Devonta Freeman is unavailable.

That combined with a likely lead from the Bucs is going to put the pressure on Jones to throw, and while I’ve already covered why I don’t think he’s going to rack up the yards, Engram can benefit from another decent target share and haul in four passes or more.

BOOM: Scotty Miller (Over 46.5 receiving yards -120)

Miller could see his role in the Bucs' offense disappear once Antonio Brown suits up in Week 9, but for one week only he is worth taking a flyer on. With Chris Godwin out, it opens up more targets for Miller, especially if Bradberry is preoccupied with Evans.

Miller’s average depth of target this season is 16.3 yards, which is the fifth highest in the NFL, and he is rolling into this match off the back of a six catch 109-yard performance in Week 7 against the Raiders.

In the four games this year where Miller has seen six or more targets, he has gone for 73 yards or more, and with Godwin out and Evans partnered with Bradberry there is a chance Brady aims for Miller more than usual. It’s a one week special, but I’m on board with Scotty!