Monday Night Football betting tips: Alvin Kamara will steamroll Raiders

Viva Las Vegas, baby! It’s a new era in the Raiders franchise as they welcome the New Orleans Saints to their new home. The Silver and Black are coming off a 34-30 victory against Carolina, courtesy of a big fourth and one stop late in the day from the Raiders defence – a rare bright moment in another difficult day for Las Vegas' D.

The Saints roll into town without star wide receiver Michael Thomas, who has a high ankle sprain, but are still 5.5-point favorites at Allegiant Stadium. New Orleans is coming off a 34-23 win over an improving Buccaneers defence, and Saints star running back Alvin Kamara should torch the Raiders tonight. 

BOOM: Alvin Kamara (Over 52.5 rushing yards -115)

Kamara didn’t produce much rushing last week against a solid Bucs defence, but tonight’s matchup with the Raiders is far more favorable.

While Kamara was struggling on the ground – posting just 16 yards on 12 carries – the Raiders were getting destroyed by Christian McCaffrey, who racked up 97 yards at an average of 4.2 yards a carry.

While I also expect Kamara to see plenty of targets from Drew Brees in Thomas’ absence, I’m banking on him doing some serious damage rushing against the Raiders’ mediocre run defence.

BOOM: Darren Waller (Over 4.5 receptions -105)

I’m landing on BOOM for Darren Waller, although it is very much based on receptions rather than his receiving yards as the Saints have bolstered their already strong defence with the signing of Malcolm Jenkins.

Having said that, Waller is a huge part of the Raiders’ receiving threat and led the team in routes and targets against the Panthers in Week 1. Derek Carr targeted Waller eight times in that match, giving Waller a 27% target share.

The Saints have an elite rush defence so Carr is going to have to throw it, and who better to aim at than his preferred receiving threat in Waller?

BUST: Hunter Renfrow (Under 36.5 receiving yards -110)

In contrast to Waller, Renfrow was targeted just twice last week by Carr and although he turned those two targets into 21 yards, I don’t see the volume being there for him to threaten this line against the Saints.

Renfrow ranks behind Waller and Henry Ruggs in terms of Carr’s preferred passing options and he was mostly used in short-yardage pass attempts.

A lack of chances is going to hurt Renfrow and I’d be confident backing him to BUST this week.

BOOM: Tre’Quan Smith (Over 33.5 receiving yards -110)

As Thomas is home nursing his ankle injury, Brees is going to have to look elsewhere to throw the ball and that is good news for Tre’Quan Smith, and anyone who has him on their fantasy team.

The speedster got just one target in Week 1, but that number can climb with Thomas on the shelf. While Kamara, Jared Cook, and Emmanuel Sanders will also be in line to up their receptions, I’m expecting Smith to get three or four from Brees here and he can turn that into some decent yardage.

Smith is likely to go up against rookie Damon Arnette, who had a nightmare debut in Week 1. The word in the Saints camp is that Smith is one of the breakthrough stars. This could be his night to shine.