MNF Week 13: Bills vs. 49ers odds, picks, and predictions

The Buffalo Bills look to maintain their lead atop the AFC East as they travel to Glendale, AZ, where they will face the temporarily relocated San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. The 49ers are slight favorites in this contest, which holds the smallest spread of the week.

Bills looking to stay hot

Buffalo is on a roll right now, leading the AFC East by one game over Miami after winning four of their last five contests. Their sole defeat was a two-point loss in this very stadium, as they were beaten by the Cardinals on a Hail Mary pass in the final seconds of the game.

Josh Allen continues to be somewhat inconsistent in his play, but is doing enough to win games. Last week, he completed 18 of 24 throws for only 157 yards and a touchdown. But he also ran for 32 yards and a score as the Bills gained 172 yards on the ground. His struggles, in part, came from Stefon Diggs not making a catch until the second half. He finished with just 39 yards on seven receptions.

Buffalo is far from invulnerable

Buffalo has not looked dominant in the majority of their wins this season. Last week’s victory over the Chargers was just their third win of the year by more than one score. Their four wins against division foes have come by a total of 24 points, but 18 of those were in their wins over the Jets. The Bills’ lone dominant win was over Seattle, and that was behind Allen’s best game of the season, where he threw for 415 yards.

The defense has work to do. The Bills are ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per game, and rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed, points allowed, number of plays allowed, and yards per play allowed.

The Bills have struggled at times on the road this season. In their previous road game before the Hail Mary loss, they scored just six field goals in a difficult win over the Jets. Before that, they were crushed by the Titans, a team that will play offense in a similar manner to the 49ers. The Bills will need to improve on both sides of the ball to defeat a pesky opponent this week.

49ers may benefit from new surroundings

While in Los Angeles to face the Rams last week, the 49ers discovered that COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara County meant they would not be able to return to their facilities. They have now relocated operations to Glendale, AZ for their next two home games. This might be a good thing for them, as four of their five wins in 2020 have come away from home.

Injuries have decimated the team all season, but two key players returned on offense last week. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel caught 11 passes for 133 yards in his return – the 49ers are 3-0 with him on the field this season and 15-5 all-time. Running back Raheem Mostert also returned, rushing 16 times for 43 yards and a score. He will be a key piece of this week’s game plan, as the Bills are the worst team in the NFL in rushing success rate. With wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk also returning, the 49ers will have all three of these offensive players together for just the third time all season.

San Francisco’s stoppers should step up

Defensively, the 49ers are set up to cause the Bills problems. Corner back Richard Sherman also returned from injury last week and played every defensive snap, adding an interception to boot. Kerry Hyder has stepped up on the defensive line this season, and is putting pressure on the quarterback. The 49ers also have a solid run defense, and will be able to manage Allen’s rushing ability.

Buffalo vs. San Francisco injury report

Buffalo has no injury concerns heading into this game, with all players participating in practice on Friday.

Meanwhile, San Francisco will get Aiyuk back from injury, giving them a big boost. Corner back Emmanuel Moseley is questionable for this game, while corner back K’Waun Williams is out.

Bills vs. 49ers betting trends

Buffalo has covered the spread in each of their last three games, but failed to do so in their four previous contests. The total has gone Over in three of their last four games and eight of their last 11, and has gone Over four times in their last five road games. The Bills have lost nine consecutive Monday night games, and have won just six times in 29 primetime games since 2000.

San Francisco has covered just once in their last four games, and just three times in their last eight games. The total has gone Under in four of their last six, but it has gone Over in four of their last six games against Buffalo. They have also covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games as an underdog.

The Bills have a huge matchup next weekend with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it is human nature to get caught looking ahead. That will not make things any easier for them in a bad matchup for their defense. San Francisco is getting most of their weapons back, and they still have a shot at making the playoffs, as they sit just one game out of a wild card berth. Their ability to run the football will cause serious problems for Buffalo, while Aiyuk and Samuels should be able to take advantage of single-coverage as the Bills load the box.

The Bills have not won a Monday Night Football game in the 21st century. San Francisco will make sure that streak continues, as they will hand them their tenth-consecutive Monday night defeat.

Score Prediction: San Francisco 27, Buffalo 24

NFL Picks: 49ers -1, Over 47

Wager on all NFL Week 13 action on BetAmerica!