Mahomes leads the way in Super Bowl LV MVP odds

On Sunday, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes will make their 2021 NFL playoffs debut against the Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round.

With a league-best 14-2 record during the regular season, the Chiefs head into the matchup as the favorite to win Super Bowl LV (+200), while their offensive leader, Mahomes, is the pick to earn his second consecutive Super Bowl MVP.

The 25-year-old gunslinger has already enjoyed a stellar season. He completed a career-high 66.3% of his passes, for 4,740 yards and 38 touchdowns, and ran for a career-best 308 yards and two scores.

The 2018 NFL MVP has clearly demonstrated his importance to his team’s success throughout the season, which makes him a logical choice to collect Super Bowl MVP, should the Chiefs achieve another title.

Super Bowl MVP trends to consider  

Mahomes’ position at quarterback also gives him a leg up in Super Bowl MVP voting, based on trends.

Since 2000, the award has gone to 13 quarterbacks (including in eight of the last 11 Super Bowls). The only other positions to receive the honor in the last two decades are wide receiver (2005, 2006, 2009, 2018), linebacker (2001, 2014, 2016), and safety (2003).

One factor working against Mahomes is that only two players have won Super Bowl MVP in back-to-back seasons. Green Bay Packers quarterback Bart Starr did it in Super Bowl I and II, and Pittsburgh Steelers signal caller Terry Bradshaw won it in 1979 and 1980.

In 1989, receiver Jerry Rice earned Super Bowl MVP with San Francisco, before Niners quarterback Joe Montana won it the following year.

In 1993, quarterback Troy Aikman took home Super Bowl MVP with Dallas, before running back Emmitt Smith accepted the trophy with the Cowboys in 1994.

Same goes for Terrell Davis (running back) and quarterback John Elway with Denver, in 1998 and 1999, and QB Tom Brady and receiver Deion Branch in 2004 and 2005.

Based on that trend, if you believe the Chiefs will win a second straight Super Bowl, you may be better off backing one of Mahomes’ weapons on offense.  

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce offer value in Super Bowl MVP odds

Both Tyreek Hill (+1600) and Travis Kelce (+1800) are capable of stealing the show in Kansas City. Hill put up 1,276 receiving yards and hauled in 15 touchdown catches in 2020, while Kelce led the Chiefs with 1,416 receiving yards and tallied 11 touchdowns.

In last year’s Super Bowl, Hill was the game's top receiver, with 105 yards on nine receptions, but Kelce has been the leading receiver in 10 of the Chiefs’ 17 games this season.

If Kelce were to win Super Bowl MVP, he would be the first tight end to take home the award.

Super Bowl LV MVP contenders and longshots 

After Wild Card Weekend, a few other players emerged as Super Bowl MVP candidates.

You can’t count out four-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady (+1300), one-time Super Bowl winner Drew Brees (+1000), or league MVP frontrunner Aaron Rodgers (+525). Rodgers may be the best option out of the NFC, followed by Brees, whose Saints will look to defeat Brady’s Buccaneers for the third time this season on Sunday.

The team tied for the third-best Super Bowl odds is the Buffalo Bills (+550). Quarterback Josh Allen (+850) shook his playoff woes Saturday, with a strong outing against Indianapolis, and would make for a good Super Bowl MVP bet, if you think the Chiefs won't make it out of the AFC.

The third-year quarterback completed 74.3% of his passes for 324 yards and accounted for three touchdowns in a 27-24 win over the Colts.

As for a longshot out of the AFC, Allen’s teammate, Stefon Diggs (+3300) could draw some Super Bowl MVP votes.

In Saturday’s Wild Card contest, he snagged six catches, for 128 yards and a score. Diggs also led the league in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535) during the regular season, and he has been a key part of the Bills’ rise to win the AFC East.

In 2019, Julian Edelman became the seventh wide receiver to win Super Bowl MVP. If Diggs can put up the kind of numbers he has all season and help his team earn a Super Bowl ring, the voters may find it difficult to name anyone else Most Valuable Player.