Lions vs. Broncos: NFL Week 14 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Detroit Lions had a good week. In a season in which they’ve repeatedly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, they reversed the tide with an emotional victory over their division rival, the Minnesota Vikings, with a last-second touchdown to give them their first win of the season.

Now they must take to the road in Week 14 for a Sunday afternoon game against the Denver Broncos. Let’s take a look at the game.

The Lions are 1-10-1 on the season straight up, but an impressive 8-4 against the spread, which is the fourth best mark in the league.

The Broncos are 6-6 straight up following their Sunday night defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs, and are 6-6 against the spread. The line for the game has the Broncos as eight-point favorites, with a total of 42 points.

Lions boast surprising spread success

The Lions have had an interesting season, albeit a profitable one for their betting supporters. They have had many narrow losses, which for some may lead to the thought that they have been a decent team who simply suffers from some late-game bad luck.

They have, in fact, suffered several late-game defeats, but the reality is they have been fortunate to find themselves in those positions as often as they have. They are the lowest-rated team, per Pro Football Focus, and are 30th in points per play offensively. They are 31st in yards per point, and 30th in points per game.

They are slightly better defensively against league benchmarks, but are still 28th in opponent yards per play, and dead last in opponent pass yards per play.

The Lions have covered spreads not because they are good at being bad, but because they are so bad that they are getting some of the highest lines on average in the league.

Kudos to the Lions and head coach Dan Campbell for continuing to fight in a season that is destined to be a losing one, but the starting unit for this roster and the depth behind it isn’t good. Regression against the spread seems likely as they close out their year and set their sights on the 2022 NFL Draft.

Lions and Broncos betting trends

• Broncos are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in the previous game
• Broncos are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games versus teams with a losing record
• Broncos are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 against an opponent from the NFC North
• Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog
• The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams

Denver will benefit from altitude effect

The Broncos are an odd team this year in that they cover in wins and don’t cover in losses. This week, they should be able to handle winning, as they are a significantly better team overall than the Lions.

If they are to win, it will likely come down to their running game that wears down opposing defenses and gives quarterback Teddy Bridgewater an opportunity to find receivers in single coverage.

Playing in high altitude is tough as it is, but this Broncos offense should make it even more difficult by wearing down a Lions front that has struggled most of this year against good running teams, like San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia.

Score prediction: Broncos 30, Lions 17

NFL Week 14 pick: Broncos -8