Lions vs. Bears: NFL Week 4 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Detroit Lions will try to pick up their first win of the season when they travel to Chicago on Sunday to face the Bears. Let's examine this matchup, beginning with the latest betting odds.

Lions still wondering how Ravens beat them

There were 26 seconds left last week in the game between Detroit and Baltimore. It was fourth and 19. The Lions had a 97.1% chance of winning the game. They were ready to celebrate their first win of the season after opening with three teams from last year’s playoffs.

Instead, Detroit watched the game slip away from them in crushing fashion, after Lamar Jackson’s 36-yard pass to Sammy Watkins set up an NFL-record 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker. The kick slammed into the crossbar, flew high into the air, and dropped down behind the post for a 19-17 Ravens’ victory.

Despite being 0-3 on the season, Detroit is arguably two plays away from being 2-1. They nearly stormed back to force overtime in Week 1 against the 49ers, and they were beating Green Bay at halftime in Week 2 before capitulating in the second half. Against the Ravens, their defense held Jackson to just 58 yards rushing, and limited the NFL’s best rushing attack to 116 yards on 22 carries.

However, their pass defense continues to be horrid, as exhibited by the failure to prevent Jackson’s heroic conversion. That shouldn’t be an issue this week against the NFL’s worst passing attack, with Chicago averaging less than 100 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, the offense hasn’t put up world-beating numbers, but QB Jared Goff has played solid football, throwing for 801 yards and five touchdowns versus two interceptions through three games.

Fields floundered in Bears’ debut

Justin Fields may have endured the worst debut for a starting quarterback in the history of the league. He completed just six of his 20 throws for 68 yards, and was sacked nine times—with Myles Garrett registering four and a half—losing 65 yards on those plays. The Bears gained just 47 yards of offense on 42 plays, and on the season are averaging just 3.3 yards per play, by far the worst in the NFL.

Many Bears fans are upset with Nagy, not Fields, after watching their franchise quarterback get beaten up all day. Of the 30 pass plays called, he was hit 15 times. Fields got moved out of the pocket just twice by design, and only two other times did the Bears go max protect. Now, Nagy has stated the quarterback job is up for grabs for the game against the Lions, with Fields, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles all in contention. However, Foles is unlikely to be ready after his knee injury, so Foles or Fields—or perhaps both—will be facing the Lions’ defense.

To make matters worse, the Bears may be hampered on the defensive side of the ball. Khalil Mack was hurt against the Browns, and was playing the second half in visible pain. If he is unable to go, or isn’t at full strength, it would be a massive blow for the ninth-best DVOA unit in the NFL. That said, Detroit isn’t exactly setting the world on fire offensively, averaging just 22.3 points per game and scoring only 17 in each of its past two games.

Lions and Bears Betting Trends

• The Lions are winless in their last seven games
• The Over is 9-4 in the Lions’ last 13 games
• The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when favored
• The Under is 15-5 in Chicago’s last 20 games at home
• The Bears are 1-8 SU in their last nine games against NFC teams

Detroit will finally break through in Week 4

Detroit has been unlucky to not have its first win, but everything sets up perfectly for them in this one. Chicago gains more than half their offensive yardage on the ground, but Detroit has already shown this season its run defense is stout. Meanwhile, the Lions' biggest weakness will be helped by Chicago’s anemic passing attack, especially given the Bears might be down to their third-string quarterback.

Detroit is winless, but they seem to be heading in the right direction. While the Bears are 1-2, their offense is an absolute wreck at the moment. Until they show they have any idea how to move the ball through the air, I would not trust Chicago—especially not as a favorite. However, their defense is still stout, and should hold the Lions to a fairly low score.

Take the Lions to not only cover the spread but to win outright for a solid payout. Additionally, pair the Lions moneyline with the Under 42 for a Same Game Combo win. That total has only been reached in two of Chicago’s three games, and the Under has hit in 15 of the last 20 games at Soldier Field.

Score prediction: Detroit 21, Chicago 17

NFL Week 4 PICKs: LIONS Moneyline (+128); SAME GAME COMBO LIONS Moneyline and UNDER 42 (+290)