Lamar Jackson favored to lead NFL in playoff rushing yards
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson turns the corner on Los Angeles Rams outside linebacker Samson Ebukam. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
January 16th, 2021
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the +175 favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards from the divisional round on. But is he the best available bet in this market, or is there someone else that appeals more? Here’s our analysis.
Favorites for most playoff rushing yards
| Name | Odds |
|---|
Lamar Jackson | +175 |
Cam Akers | +350 |
Alvin Kamara | +400 |
Aaron Jones | +750 |
Nick Chubb | +1200 |
Jackson seems like a bad bet
Jackson’s ability to tuck and run, and the fact that the Ravens occasionally call designed runs for him, isn’t being called into question. In fact, his 136 yards rushing against the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card round was quite impressive.
Lamar Jackson hit 20.52 mph on this touchdown run, the seventh-fastest speed by a QB this season. (via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/0keNDE2zsC
— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) January 10, 2021
However, Baltimore does not have an easy road to the Super Bowl. Beating the Bills in Buffalo this weekend is no sure thing. And a potential date with the Kansas City Chiefs, whom Jackson is 0-3 against, does not inspire confidence.
In short, betting on a quarterback who might get eliminated this weekend to lead the NFL in rushing as the favorite doesn’t seem wise.
Alvin Kamara appeals more
The New Orleans Saints’ Alvin Kamara (+400) is the running back most likely to both accumulate yards and survive and advance to Super Bowl LV.
A Christmas performance you'll never forget.@A_kamara6 | @Saints | #Saints pic.twitter.com/dckhx2Rkqw
— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2020
After rushing for 155 yards and six touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day, Kamara recorded 99 yards and a score on the ground against the Chicago Bears in the Wild Card round.
The Saints face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ tenacious No. 1 rushing defense this week. But assuming they advance, Kamara should make light work of the Green Bay Packers’ defense (assuming they handle business against the banged-up Los Angeles Rams).
Aaron Jones a live longshot
Packers tailback Aaron Jones (+750) looks like a live longshot or a decent hedge play, depending on perspective.
Aaron Jones went BEAST MODE on this run 😱
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 7, 2020
77-yard TD.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/tDnmDyCaw9
Jones was fourth among running backs in rushing yards this season (1,104) and third in yards per carry (5.5). Though the Rams and Saints (or Bucs) do not pose easy matchups on the ground, Jones is one of those running backs that could be considered “matchup-proof.”
The Packers are a decent bet to make it to the big game, and if they do, Jones should be a key contributor.
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