Houston Texans 2019 NFL betting preview

Houston Texans at a glance

2018 record: 11-5-0, first in the AFC South Key additions: S Tashaun Gipson, CB Bradley Roby, TE Darren Fells Key losses: FS Tyrann Mathieu, SS Kareem Jackson, DE Christian Covington

Overview

In his fifth year as head coach of the Texans, Bill O’Brien transformed a four-win team in 2017 into an 11-5 squad in 2018, his best record to date with Houston. The Texans ended the year atop the AFC South and earned a spot in the playoffs, where they lost to the division rival Colts 21-7 in the wild-card round.

One of the most glaring issues facing Houston in 2018 was offensive-line play. Second-year quarterback Deshaun Watson (4,716 all-purpose yards, 31 total touchdowns) got sacked 62 times, the most a quarterback has endured in an NFL season since 2006. In the offseason the Texans signed left tackle Matt Kalil, who sat out last season with the Panthers because of a knee injury, and gain back right tackle Seantrel Henderson, who broke his ankle Week 1 of last season. Houston also drafted tackles Tytus Howard of Alabama in the first round and Max Scharping of Northern Illinois in the second to develop over time, but there’s still a lot to figure out with the starting O-line.

The run game could use some help going forward. Lamar Miller ran for 973 yards and five touchdowns in 2018, but the next-best option behind him (and Deshaun Watson’s 551 rushing yards) was Alfred Blue, who tallied 499 yards and two touchdowns. Blue signed with the Jaguars in 2019, and D’Onta Foreman got waived by the Texans after he sat out last season with a torn Achilles. Houston will need to develop a solid backup option in Buddy Howell or Duke Johnson.

Pass coverage is an area of concern for Houston. The team ranked 28th in passing defense last season and let go of Tyrann Mathieu (89 tackles, eight passes defended, two interceptions) and cornerback Kareem Jackson (87 tackles, 17 passes defended, two interceptions). Safety Justin Reid (88 tackles, 10 passes defended, three interceptions) will return, alongside new addition Tashaun Gipson from Jacksonville. The Texans also added former Bronco Bradley Roby at cornerback.

One thing is certain—Houston will have another stellar run defense. Every starter from the front seven is back in 2019, and J.J. Watt (16 sacks, seven forced fumbles) and Jadeveon Clowney (nine sacks, three fumble recoveries) should continue to excel at a superstar level. Though Clowney may be suiting up for a new team before long.

Super Bowl odds: +3500

There’s too much competition at the top, and too much for Houston to improve on, to feasibly buy into a Texans Super Bowl in 2019.

AFC Championship odds: +1600

Houston is the eighth-favorite to win the AFC Championship. The Patriots, Chiefs and Colts look too enticing to pick Houston to win the conference over any of them. The Chargers, Browns or Steelers could have a better year, too.

AFC South odds: +250

It’s not out of the question to see the Texans working their way up the AFC South ladder once again. O’Brien has led the Texans to three AFC South championships in the last four years, and the only team realistically standing in his way is the Colts. Indianapolis has a lot going for it in 2019, but if Andrew Luck can’t stay healthy, Houston is a viable option to claim the AFC South title again.

Odds to make the playoffs: +145

A playoff push is possible but far from certain. The Colts should take the automatic qualifier as division champ. The Browns, Steelers and Ravens will all see improvement in the coming season, which adds competition for a wild-card spot. Still, O’Brien managed to make the postseason last year with a weak offensive line and pass defense, so no reason he can't surprise everyone and do it all over again.

Regular season win total: 8.5

Houston drew a difficult schedule. The Texans open with New Orleans on the road, then will take on the new-look Jags with Nick Foles at home. The Texans hit the road in Week 3 to battle the Chargers, then host the Panthers and Falcons back to back before they travel to Kansas City and Indianapolis. The Raiders will be a welcome home game in Week 8 before Houston faces Jacksonville in London and heads to Baltimore in Week 11. The Patriots are another bankable loss in Week 13, but the remainder of the schedule is manageable, with games against Denver at home, the Titans twice and Tampa Bay on the road. Houston will win eight and go under.

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