Five NFL Week 1 spreads you need to jump on right now

The NFL released its 2021 schedule on Wednesday. As fans and bettors alike break down the full slate, linesmakers have taken the bold next step of offering Week 1 lines. With many lines certain to change between now and September, early bettors have an opportunity to snag some value on odds that will move between now and kickoff.

Let’s take a look at five NFL Week 1 spreads you need to jump on right now.

Tennessee Titans -2.5

The Tennessee Titans have been an offensive juggernaut the last two seasons with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry forming a legitimate dual-threat offensive combination. They were the fourth-highest scoring offense in the league in 2020, and Tannehill has long been the most underrated quarterback in the league.

The defense has been questionable, but they’ve made three notable moves this offseason that might assist in this area. Former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz has been brought on as a defensive assistant. Schwartz is an elite defensive mind that will help with schemes. From a personnel perspective, they have also added Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Bud Dupree and drafted cornerback Caleb Farley in the first round.

The Arizona Cardinals are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games on natural grass, and last year’s efficiency ratings put these two teams on fairly equal footing. Expect the home team to look like an enticing pick laying the always-tricky 2.5 points, and for this spread to tick up to a solid Titans -3 number by game time.

Houston Texans +2.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have highly-touted first overall pick Trevor Lawrence leading the offense, and well-regarded head coach Urban Meyer calling the plays. These two names alone bring some excitement to Jacksonville.

On the other side of the field, the Houston Texans are in a state of turmoil. Longtime Pro Bowler and fan favorite J.J. Watt is departed, and quarterback Deshaun Watson is embroiled in controversy amid sexual assault allegations.

Watson’s status for this game, this season, and in fact his entire career is currently in question, and the line reflects this. But if Watson does play, this line will likely flip. Even if he doesn’t, Texans backup Tyrod Taylor has significantly more NFL playing experience than Lawrence. The Houston offense led the NFL in yards per play in 2020 while Jacksonville was 25th. This line is a cautious overreaction to Watson’s situation, and one that is very likely to move.

Minnesota Vikings -3.5

All indications are that Cincinatti Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will be back and healthy by Week 1. But if he isn’t, expect this line to move against the Bengals with backup Brandon Allen being a below-average replacement option.

However, even when Burrow was healthy in 2020 the Bengals were still a bad football team. The drafting of JaMarr Chase will help, but Cincinnati was plagued by a plethora of issues on offense and defense last year, and that's hard to reverse in just one offseason.

The Minnesota Vikings are far from giant-killers, but they simply have more talent. Despite the deserved criticism that quarterback Kirk Cousins has taken at times, the Vikings were still fourth in the league in offensive yards per play in 2020 and will have all their key weapons back on that side of the ball.

Cleveland Browns +5.5

If you’re laying 5, look alive.

The Cleveland Browns very nearly toppled the Kansas City Chiefs in last year’s AFC Divisional playoff round. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes exited with a concussion and that certainly enhanced the Browns’ chances late, but the Browns made things close by rushing the ball effectively, controlling the clock, and playing sound defense against the league’s best offense.

In the Super Bowl, the Chiefs’ relative weakness on the offensive line was exposed and it should have Browns defensive end Myles Garrett licking his chops. Look for the Browns to try and slow the game down and control the clock again, and get to Mahomes as effectively as the Bucs did to keep this close.

Public money on the favorite could push this game up a bit if Chiefs money comes in, but I think it’s far more likely sharp money takes this down to 4.5 than up to 6.5.

Green Bay Packers +2.5

The New Orleans Saints are 1-6 against the spread over the last seven years in Week 1. The Green Bay Packers, on the other hand, are on a 5-1 run against the spread over the last six years in Week 1. Follow the trend or look to bet against two of them?

With Aaron Rodgers’ contract situation leaving the Packers’ franchise in a state of serious confusion, there is a risk that a Rodgers departure would leave Packers-backers holding a worthless ticket as the line would likely move significantly against this number. But as time passes there is continued belief that Rodgers’ situation is one of posturing, and he will in fact be back under center for Green Bay.

If he is, the Packers are a better team than the Saints. They were significantly more efficient in 2020 and defeated the Saints in New Orleans 37-30 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. If - and when - Rodgers comes out of training camp ready to go, don’t be surprised if this line ends up at a pick 'em.