Finding value and profits with NFL prop bets
July 24th, 2019
Unless you've been living under a rock, you're familiar with the Super Bowl. During the Super Bowl, sportsbooks everywhere offer prop bets of seemingly every variety. It's the one time each year that true degeneracy is celebrated rather than chastised. While your aunt might join in for $5 worth of fun on the big day, the rest of the season is when watchful eyes can find value. And while the offerings get reduced, there's still plenty to choose from.
Player props are slightly easier to understand for those transitioning from fantasy football, as they isolate individual players and require predictive ability of specific player production. These props can include Over/Under passing yards for a quarterback, Over/Under rushing plus receiving yards" for a running back or "Over/Under total tackles" by a linebacker.
When deciding which props to play, you first have to decide how you think the game will play out. If you think two teams have weak secondaries but don't know which players will catch the touchdowns, stay away from wide receivers and look for game or quarterback passing touchdown props. The beauty of props is you can identify the variables you have a good handle on and isolate them into a wager. I've found the best success with props when considering player usage, coaching strategies and statistical regression to mean when making my wagers, but there are plenty of strategies for taking these on. Have a plan, know what you're looking for and don't be scared to trust your gut.
The NFL regular season doesn't begin until September, but you can get a head start with props right now at BetAmerica.
Typically, NFL prop bets are divided into two different categories: game props and player props.
Game props are unique to the circumstances within the game. These can be things like, "will any team have three unanswered scores?" Over/Unders on the longest scoring play or Over/Unders on total touchdowns. It doesn't matter which player scores a long touchdown to get the Over, or if one team scores enough touchdowns to cover the total.Player props are slightly easier to understand for those transitioning from fantasy football, as they isolate individual players and require predictive ability of specific player production. These props can include Over/Under passing yards for a quarterback, Over/Under rushing plus receiving yards" for a running back or "Over/Under total tackles" by a linebacker.
When deciding which props to play, you first have to decide how you think the game will play out. If you think two teams have weak secondaries but don't know which players will catch the touchdowns, stay away from wide receivers and look for game or quarterback passing touchdown props. The beauty of props is you can identify the variables you have a good handle on and isolate them into a wager. I've found the best success with props when considering player usage, coaching strategies and statistical regression to mean when making my wagers, but there are plenty of strategies for taking these on. Have a plan, know what you're looking for and don't be scared to trust your gut.
The NFL regular season doesn't begin until September, but you can get a head start with props right now at BetAmerica.
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