Far too early picks for the most eagerly anticipated games of the 2021 NFL season
The NBA and NHL seasons are complete, and while MLB and the Olympics will keep us entertained for the next month, it's time to set our sights in earnest on the upcoming football season.
The NFL has smartly adjusted the preseason down to just three games, and most of us are eagerly awaiting a speedy run through that leading us up to Week 1, where the excitement of a new season brings unparalleled hope for fans and bettors alike.
But while plenty will be researched and written between now and then on those opening games, let’s take a look even farther out at some of the "Game of the Year" lines that have been posted and give us an opportunity to look farther down the road and potentially capture value on spreads that will undoubtedly be different come game day.
Here are three "Game of the Year" lines beyond Week 1 in the NFL that are worth a look today.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sept. 27)
The Philadelphia Eagles are coiling themselves to have a breakout in the coming years with young talent and draft capital, but in the early stages of 2021 they are not there yet. After parting ways with Carson Wentz, look for Jalen Hurts to take over the quarterback position. While Hurts showed the same tremendous competitiveness that made him a college star, he simply doesn’t have a lot to work with.
The Eagles’ offensive line has injury concerns that could derail their season yet again and leave Hurts scrambling more than he prefers. In 2020, center Jason Kelce had his worst season since 2011, while tackle Lane Johnson likewise had the worst year of his career. At wideout, the Eagles have thankfully added Heisman Trophy winning receiver, DeVonta Smith but they need more than that as one of the worst receiving corps in the league in 2020.
Jalen Hurts on DeVonta Smith 🔥pic.twitter.com/zSTsDf1ljn
— Paul C (@HurtsyIvania) July 19, 2021
The Cowboys still have one of the better offensive lines in the league, and Dak Prescott was an offensive juggernaut last year before his devastating injury. The Cowboys have the pieces to be a powerful offense and their linebacking group is one of the best in the league when fully healthy.
The Cowboys have not been a reliable favorite over the years, but they should overwhelm their division rival early-on in the season. Lay the 6.5 points with the Cowboys in this spot as they will be 7 or 7.5 point favorites come game day and still win by double digits.
Pick: Cowboys -6.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears (Oct. 31)
Both the 49ers and the Bears enter this season with complicated quarterback situations. The 49ers were rumored to possibly part ways with incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo, and that rumor didn’t relinquish when they drafted highly regarded and very physically talented QB Trey Lance, out of North Dakota State. Lance has all the physical tools and is assumed to be Garoppolo’s successor, but the question is how quickly does offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan want to wait before throwing his new young weapon to the wolves.
On the other side, the Bears brought in veteran Andy Dalton, but then drafted arguably the most physically gifted player in this year’s quarterback class in Justin Fields of Ohio State. Fields appears too raw to supplant Dalton who arrived in Chicago under the assumption he would be the starter, and so in this matchup I do expect us to still see the veterans under center rather than either young rookie.
The 49ers are favored by just 3.5 points on the road, and I think it is worth laying the points now. The Niners have a top-10 offensive line anchored by Trent Williams, while the Bears have a bottom-10 line with major question marks at the tackle spots. In the NFL, question marks at tackle are a recipe for disaster. Look for the 49ers to control both lines of scrimmage throughout and win easily in a game that might be -6 by kickoff.
Pick: 49ers -3.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (Nov. 28)
How fun does a late-November matchup in the AFC East sound!? In one of the better games we should see this year, the Cleveland Browns will be taking on the Ravens in what is sure to be a primetime matchup.
The Browns are 3.5-point underdogs in the game of the year line currently, and I would take the points here. For historians of NFL betting lines, this game screams 3-point home favorite and so I expect a free hook if you’re taking the underdog now. The Browns had a breakout season in 2020 and return one of the very best offensive lines in the league. Baker Mayfield is showing poise and leadership, and head coach Kevin Stefanski appears to have this organization moving in a direction it hasn’t moved in decades. Myles Garrett is in the prime of his career and will continue to be a nightmare no matter who he is lined up against.
The dime from @bakermayfield. The catch from @dpeoplesjones.
— NFL (@NFL) July 18, 2021
Perfect spot to witness this game-winning TD for the @Browns. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/VI3zLfNoug
The Ravens will absolutely be a tough team in 2021, but this is strictly a play-on for a team that can compete and keep games close against anyone. Points should be at a premium, so I’ll take the ones being offered.
Pick: Browns +3.5
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