Fade the Vikings in 2020 NFL win totals

With NFL regular-season win totals available at BetAmerica, I am scouting early plays in both conferences. Let’s focus upon an NFC team headed for an expected decline, the Minnesota Vikings, who I like to go Under nine wins.

Turnover among playoff teams happens every year in the NFL. Three NFC teams that made the playoffs in 2018 failed to qualify in 2019 (Chicago, Dallas, and the Los Angeles Rams), and Minnesota filled one of those spots with a 10-6 record.

The Minnesota offense wasn’t good in NFC North games. It failed to exceed 20 points only once, as the Vikings posted a 2-4 record against division opponents and took advantage of a soft non-divisional schedule, with seven wins against non-playoff teams. The Vikings dropped two of three non-divisional games against playoff opposition.

Minnesota faces a tough schedule in 2020

The schedule gets more difficult next season, with road tilts at Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Seattle, and Tampa Bay, and Minnesota has sustained key losses on offense and defense since the conclusion of the 2019 campaign.

Vikings will miss Diggs

With a maligned Kirk Cousins at the helm, the Vikings have been inconsistent offensively. They ranked 20th in total yards gained in 2018 and 18th in 2019. They recently traded away one of the best receivers in the NFL, Stefon Diggs, so that leaves Adam Thielen (who blossomed with Diggs as a premier deep threat) as the only decent wide receiver on the roster.

The Vikings will be more reliant than ever upon running back Dalvin Cook, who has missed games because of injuries (knee, hamstring, and shoulder) every season since he was in 2017.

With veteran guard Josh Kline released, offensive line and wide receiver must be addressed in the upcoming NFL Draft. Minnesota has five of the top 105 selections, but defense may be the most pressing need.

Minnesota suffered a mass exodus on defense

Eight defensive players have departed, and with no significant additions so far, it looks like a rebuilding year for a proud stop unit that has been key to the Vikings' recent success. Last season Minnesota had the sixth-best scoring defense (19.4 points allowed per game) and ranked seventh overall, according to DVOA efficiency ratings. Look for those numbers to drop precipitously in 2020.

Their top pass rusher, Everson Griffen (9.5-sack average over the last six years), is gone, along with Stephen Weatherly, which creates a depth problem on the defensive line. The secondary, especially at safety, will feel the losses of Xavier Rhodes, Mackensie Alexander, and Trae Waynes.

I predict a losing record for Minnesota next season.

NFL free pick: Under nine wins

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