Cowboys vs. Buccaneers: The best Tom Brady prop bets for TNF

The long wait for the NFL's return is finally over. The new season kicks off with an absolute humdinger on Thursday night as Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys at Raymond James Stadium.

Brady will be looking to add yet another ring to his collection this year and smash a few more records along the way. Here are the three best prop bets for the seven-time Super Bowl champ as the new season gets underway.

Over/Under 305.5 Passing Yards

The switch from Jameis Winston to Tom Brady didn’t stop the Bucs from airing it out in 2020, as Brady attempted 610 passes during the regular season last year – only Matt Ryan threw more. Brady ranked second in completions (401), third in total yards (4,633) and third in yards per game (289.6).

And it doesn’t feel like there’s any need to change it up this season either. Brady has an array of stellar options to throw to with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski leading the line.

The rushing game looks muddied again with Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones splitting work and Giovani Bernard available as a passing-down back, so expect Brady to throw early and often.

The Bucs had the NFL’s second best passing offense last year, and the Cowboys may not be able to stop Tampa Bay on Thursday. Dallas has a new defensive scheme, but have already lost defensive tackle Neville Gallimore (elbow), which is not ideal when you're facing one of the best offenses in the league.

It wasn't long ago that the Tampa Bay defense absolutely swallowed up Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, and they will be keen to get after Prescott, who will be making his first regular season start since breaking his ankle last year. Since Todd Bowles came in as defensive coordinator in 2019, Tampa Bay ranks fourth in takeaways and second in points scored from turnovers – so there will be plenty of opportunities coming Brady’s way.

Brady threw for more than 300 yards in five of the last seven regular season games in 2020, and Mike Evans has already hyped this offense up by saying it’s "miles ahead" of where it was at this point last year. With that in mind, take the Over as Brady aims for another season of 4,600+ yards.    

Pick: Over 305.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Over/Under 2.5 Touchdown Passes

The Bucs led the NFL with a 95.1% scoring percentage on red zone drives last season, and 42 of their 61 trips into the red zone resulted in a touchdown. 72% of Tampa’s touchdowns last season came through the air with Brady’s haul of 40 in the regular season being his career highlight.

Brady threw multiple touchdowns in 13 of the 16 regular season games last year and found a familiar face as he hit Gronk for a couple in the Super Bowl, before adding another in the hands of Antonio Brown.

There’s plenty of reason to think Dallas are vulnerable to the pass as the Cowboys gave up 34 TDs through the air last season, which ranked a lowly 27th in the league. Dallas has a new defensive scheme which may tighten them up, but an opening game in Tampa against this Bucs offense is a real baptism by fire.

Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and Kirk Cousins all threw for at least three TDS in games against the Cowboys in the regular season last year, and with Tampa’s projected points line at 30, we can expect Brady to light up Thursday Night Football. 

Pick: Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (+123)