Cowboys vs. Buccaneers: The best Dak Prescott player prop bets for TNF

A new NFL season kicks off on Thursday, and already bettors are hit with the first conundrum – the return of Dak Prescott.

The Cowboys QB put up huge numbers in 2019, completing 388 passes for more than 4,900 yards and 30 touchdowns. He showed no signs of slowing down in 2020, as he threw for more than 1,850 yards and nine touchdowns, adding three more trips to the end zone rushing through his first four games.

But then came the gruesome ankle injury, and now coming into the new season we’re told he isn’t 100% because of a niggling shoulder problem. On the flip side, he is the signal caller for one of the most exciting and dynamic offenses this season.

So, what can we expect when Dak and the Cowboys roll into Tampa to face the Bucs? We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best player prop bets for the Dallas QB.

Over/Under 286.5 Passing Yards

There is no doubting the quality of the arsenal Prescott has to aim at this season. The Cowboys receiving corps features Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and they have a very good offensive line. Not to mention a certain Ezekiel Elliott.

That is a serious supporting cast for Prescott to unload at, and his stats when healthy are mind-blowing. Considering his 2019 season and four full games last year, Prescott threw for more than 286 yards in 50% of them, and averaged 330 yards per game in total.

All the talk last year was of the Bucs’ run defense, which shut down all comers and was the most feared in the league. They allowed just 80 yards per game on the ground, so teams took to the air against them. Tampa’s defense ranked 21st in yards per game through the air, giving up 247 yards per contest on average.

In the regular season, the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Rams, and Kansas City Chiefs all threw for more than 330 yards against the Bucs. This is going to be close, but given how Zeke may be completely shut down by Tampa, I’m siding with the Over.     

Over 286.5 Passing Yards (-113)

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Over/Under 39.5 Pass Attempts

This prop is where the shoulder concern starts to really become more apparent. Prescott himself has reassured fans that he is fine, and the Cowboys released an MRI a few weeks ago showing the shoulder was healing well.

That being said, Prescott hasn’t taken a snap against an opposition defence for more than 330 days. And now he faces a defence that is coming off the back of a Super Bowl win where they absolutely tortured Patrick Mahomes. In the 16 regular season games, the Tampa defence hit the QB 116 times – an average of more than seven times a game.

There must be some feeling in the Cowboys' dressing room that they won’t want to put too much work on Prescott, and a hope that Zeke can break down this seemingly impenetrable Bucs run defense.

Opposing QBs attempted 38.5 passes a game against Tampa last year, and in 2019 when he was fully fit, Prescott was averaging 37 passes per game. Lower those expectations slightly given his return from injury and take the Under.

Pick: Under 39.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

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Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Tampa Bay’s defense ranked 20th in the league against passing touchdowns (giving up 29 last season) and thy also ranked 20th in the red zone, with their opponents getting into the end zone 63% of the time they were in the red zone.

Drew Brees (twice), Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, and Matt Ryan (twice) all had regular season games against Tampa last year where they threw for multiple touchdowns. Prescott will be a hard name to keep off that list this year.

We’ve covered his array of attacking options already, and in the 20 games across 2019 and 2020 Prescott threw two touchdowns or more in 60% of them. The Cowboys’ points line is 22, and with Tampa Bay's weakness against the pass compared to the ground game, Prescott should see at least two passes landing in the end zone.

Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-148)