Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: The best touchdown bets for Super Bowl LV

The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs will go toe-to-toe with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, pitching the legendary Tom Brady against the future of the NFL in Patrick Mahomes. It promises to be a monster game in Tampa, and with the total points line set at 56.5 there should be plenty of scoring opportunities.

With that in mind, here are three players you should zero in on when making your Super Bowl LV touchdown bets.

Travis Kelce: +600 first TD or -175 anytime TD

“Keep it simple stupid” was a mantra my old coach used to live by. We weren’t a good team, so getting the basics right and not trying anything too fancy was the key to avoiding a humiliating defeat every weekend.

And with that advice ringing in my ears to this day, I turn to Travis Kelce. Simple.

Kelce had himself a standout season. His regular season stat lines of 105 receptions, 1,416 receiving yards, 94.4 yards per game and 11 touchdowns are all career highs. And the star tight end hasn’t eased off the gas in the playoffs either, going for 118 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills in the AFC Conference Championship.

Kelce’s target share in the regular season was 23.7% and that climbed up to 34.7% in the playoffs as Patrick Mahomes keeps going back to his ultra-reliable receiver.

Only Davante Adams and Darren Waller received more targets inside the opponent's 20-yard line than Kelce who has hauled in 65% of his 20 targets in the red zone, converting them into nine touchdowns. Only six teams have given up more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the Bucs, and Kelce can find pay dirt again on the biggest stage of them all.

Leonard Fournette: +1050 first TD or +120 anytime TD

The KC defense is a little like Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to stopping running backs from getting into the end zone. During the regular season they gave up seven rushing touchdowns, the fewest of any team in the NFL. However, they also conceded five receiving touchdowns to running backs – with only the Lions and the Cardinals conceding more.

Step forward Leonard Fournette.

The Bucs’ running back has stepped it up a notch in the home stretch, averaging 16 carries and an additional five receptions per game in the playoffs. He has racked up 313 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage in the three playoff games, including a ridiculously impressive run against the Packers which made me dizzy just watching it.

Fournette was far more impactful on the ground than an inefficient Ronald Jones II against Green Bay, and has continued to out-touch his fellow back in recent weeks. Throw in the fact that he is becoming a more frequent target in Brady’s passing game and Fournette packs plenty of appeal against the Chiefs.

Rob Gronkowski: +2200 first TD or +260 anytime TD

I’ve been down on Gronk in the playoff stretch and have consistently backed against him in prop markets as Tom Brady looked elsewhere in his receiving corps and Gronk’s targets started to disappear.

That strategy has paid dividends as Gronk posted zero catches for zero yards against Washington, one catch for 14 yards against the Saints, and one catch for 29 yards against the Packers.

However, there’s decent reason to believe Gronk can break out at Super Bowl LV. His target share during the regular season was just 12.7%, but that rose to 17.9% inside the opponent's 20-yard line and jumped again to 20.4% inside the opponent’s 10.

Gronk already has three Super Bowl touchdowns to his name, and is likely to add a fourth on Feb. 7 in Tampa.