Chiefs favored to lead all teams in wins in 2021 NFL season

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to achieve the NFL’s best regular-season record for the second straight year.

According to TwinSpires Sports, last season’s Super Bowl runners-up have +400 odds to finish with the league’s best record, followed by reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay (+650), the Buffalo Bills (+1000), and Baltimore Ravens (+1100).

Chiefs shook up O-line in offseason

While quarterback Patrick Mahomes, star tight end Travis Kelce, receiver Tyreek Hill, and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire all return for another season, the Chiefs’ offensive line underwent a massive overhaul.

In Pro Football Focus’ final offensive line rankings for the 2020 season, Kansas City’s unit ranked 11th, but by the end of the postseason, injuries had ravaged the group.

Left tackle Eric Fisher tore his Achilles tendon in the AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills and was released in the offseason, along with longtime tackle Mitchell Schwartz.

To replace Fisher, Kansas City traded for Ravens starting tackle and two-time Pro Bowler Orlando Brown Jr. in April. The Chiefs also added veteran left guard Joe Thuney, right guard Kyle Long (who came out of a one-year retirement), Los Angeles Rams center Austin Blythe, and drafted guard Trey Smith and center Creed Humphrey. Right tackle Mike Remmers is the sole returning starter up front.

Chiefs minicamp news and upcoming schedule

Last week, the Chiefs conducted their mandatory three-day minicamp. Long was absent because of a knee injury, while a few of the rookie linemen impressed on debut.

Humphrey displayed enough promise to earn a potential starting spot at center in Week 1, while Smith could play in place of Long while he nurses his leg back to health.

A brand-new offensive line could come with hiccups to start the season, but this talented unit possesses a ton of upside and improves Kansas City’s offensive line grade to seventh in the league, per Pro Football Focus.

Even if Mahomes receives better protection in the upcoming season, the other concern regarding the Chiefs’ win total is strength of schedule.

Based on their opponents’ combined record in 2020, K.C. drew the 11th most difficult schedule next season.

The Chiefs open against a dark-horse Super Bowl contender, the Cleveland Browns, then visit Baltimore, and host the Los Angeles Chargers, a division rival expected to take a leap with first-year coach Brandon Staley.

Other key games on the schedule include a meeting with Buffalo in Week 5 and a matchup with Green Bay in Week 9 — which could pit Mahomes against Aaron Rodgers for the first time, if the Packers front office can convince the three-time MVP to suit up for another season.

Best bet for NFL team to win the most games in the 2021 season

Since Mahomes became starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have compiled a 38-10 regular-season record. Last season, Kansas City endured its first lost of the year to division foe Las Vegas in Week 5 but did not lose again until Week 17, when the team rested its starters.

Another dominant season can be expected from Mahomes and company, but other franchises have started to figure out this offensive powerhouse.

The team that defeated Kansas City in the Super Bowl — Tampa Bay — is the one the rest of the league should fear most in 2021.

Tampa Bay will return all 22 starters from its Super Bowl roster and drew the fourth-easiest schedule, based on opponents’ record in 2020.

The Buccaneers finished with an 11-5 regular-season record in 2020, but second-year Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady and his star-studded offense started last season at a disadvantage, as the COVID-19 pandemic kept the roster from engaging in normal offseason activities.

As the 2020 season progressed, the Bucs found their stride and now have a true offseason to build upon their late-season success.

Their most difficult matchups in 2021 include road games at the Rams and Patriots, as well as a Week 14 meeting with Buffalo, another candidate to lead the league in wins.

The Bills tied for the second-best record last season, at 13-3, and bring back the bulk of their roster.

Their upcoming schedule is tied with Indianapolis for the ninth easiest, though Buffalo will face both the Chiefs and Bucs in 2021.

For a boom-or-bust play worth considering, look to the San Francisco 49ers (+1300). With their roster back to full strength and one of the easier schedules this year, the Niners could return to their 2019 form, which saw the franchise go 13-3 and reach Super Bowl LIV.

However, with the Rams' trade for quarterback Matthew Stafford in the offseason, the highly competitive NFC West should be all the more perilous in 2021.

Based on roster turnover and strength of schedule, your best bet for most victories in the upcoming season is the team led by seven-time Super Bowl winner Brady.

With the 43-year-old quarterback in what could be his final season in Tampa Bay, and with a full offseason to prepare this time around, the Bucs should hit the ground running, straight to a top seed in the NFC.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650