Chiefs and Chargers head south of the border for crucial MNF match

We’ve got a huge AFC West showdown on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes back, but they’ve got work to do sitting at fifth in the conference standings. Meanwhile, this is a dirt nap game for the Chargers. They’re currently 11th in the conference and a divisional loss here would all but end their postseason hopes.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers odds

Chiefs will have their hands full with Bosa, Ingram and Nwosu

Let’s switch gears this week and check out the trench warfare first. The Chiefs rank a dismal 28th in Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), but are all the way up at fifth in pass protection. They’ll be going up against a Chargers’ front that is 21st and 13th in the aforementioned categories. I feel like Mahomes’ ability to buy time and throw from any angle will be able to mostly offset this disadvantage, though Chiefs fans should be very worried about Cam Erving filling in for Eric Fisher at OT and facing off against the likes of Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Uchenna Nwosu.

The Chargers’ OL has overachieved this season coming into this game at 18th in ALY and 14th in ASR. They could also be without a tackle as Sam Tevi is banged up. Tevi, however, has played at a much lower level than KC’s Fisher. The Chiefs’ DL is terrible at the point of attack (31st in ALY) and surprisingly good at getting after the passer (fifth in ASR). It is patently clear that the Chargers’ ability (or inability) to run the ball may be the single largest determination on the game’s outcome.

Mahomes spells trouble for the Chargers

Most of the Chargers’ advantages shrink up when we get outside the tackles. Philip Rivers is aging like a prized bourbon, but he’s a definite downgrade from Mahomes. Rivers has taken more than twice as many sacks and his TD:INT is 14/10. Mahomes, meanwhile is 18/1! Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are an excellent WR/TE duo but they are again usurped by that of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

RB usage has been very interesting within these two teams. LeSean McCoy is the only back averaging even four YPC (5.2), as Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have all struggled. But unlike the others, Ekeler has been an extremely efficient receiving option for the Chargers’ offense (57 receptions, 559 yards, and a team-leading six TDs). Needless to say, Gordon’s return has limited Ekeler’s opportunities and the way the coaches have handled his holdout has gone a long way towards putting them in the position they now find themselves.

KC will miss Emmanuel Ogbah

One of the Chiefs’ best DL, Emmanuel Ogbah, will have season-ending surgery. That is not good for an already weak unit. Tanoh Kpassagnon and Frank Clark will have to lift their games to fill in the void. I don’t think one could deny that the Chargers have the superior defensive unit, but it has been the Chiefs who have delivered more game altering (read: havoc) plays.

Expect the Chargers to cover

The hook is everything in this game. It just feels like a FG decides it one way or the other. When I saw the line, I immediately wanted to take the Chiefs, but doubt crept in when I investigated the OL/DLs. With Fisher and Ogbah out, I've now come all the way around to siding with a Chargers’ side whose last chance *should* have been in Oakland last Thursday. That means added rest for them here. If LAC pulls off the outright upset, the AFC West instantly challenges the AFC South for the wildest division race. I am not so sure they win, but I do like them to cover.

MNF free pick: Chargers +3.5

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