Burrow heavily favored to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

The pressure surrounding Joe Burrow continues to heat up ahead of his professional career. Not only is the former LSU quarterback projected to go first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he is also a huge favorite to earn NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

As a senior, Burrow guided his school to a No. 1 ranking in the AP poll and its first national championship during the College Football Playoff era. The Tigers defeated defending champion Clemson, 42-25, in the title game, and Burrow passed for 463 yards and racked up six total touchdowns.

During his 2019 campaign, Burrow tallied 5,671 passing yards (third all-time in an FBS season) and 60 passing TDs, which set a single-season FBS record. His 202 passer rating also made history as the best of all time, and his 76.3% completion percentage is second only to Colt McCoy’s (76.7%) from 2008.

Recipe for a Heisman-winning season

The Heisman Trophy winner made a huge leap as a senior, after an underwhelming junior year, in which he completed 57.8% of his passes for 2,894 yards and 16 TDs, and threw five interceptions. While the 23-year-old undoubtedly put in work in the offseason to boost his production in 2019, much of his success was also attributed to the arrival of Joe Brady and a new offensive scheme.

The Tigers passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach helped implement a spread offense in lieu of LSU’s traditional run-focused attack. That opened up more opportunities for Burrow to score, and led to Brady's job as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator.

With Burrow expected to sign with the Cincinnati Bengals as the No. 1 draft pick, it leaves many wondering whether he’ll excel within a new offense and with a franchise that is struggling to find its footing.

Burrow's back against the wall in Bengals' offense

The Bengals had a 2-14 record last season, the worst in the league, in Zac Taylor’s first year as head coach. Veteran quarterback Andy Dalton endured arguably the worst season of his career. He finished with a 78.3 passer rating, with 3,494 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. His offensive line failed to protect him and allowed Dalton to get sacked 37 times.

It’s difficult to imagine Burrow will be able to plop right into the Bengals’ system and transform a bumbling offense into something exceptional. He’ll have A.J. Green at his disposal, after Cincinnati placed a franchise tag on the free agent in 2020, but how much tread is left on the tires of the 31-year-old wideout?

Green missed all of the previous season with an ankle injury and played just nine games in 2018. The No. 4 overall draft pick from 2011 has averaged 14.8 yards per catch for his career, but his health is a question mark.

If Green isn’t back to full strength in 2020, Tyler Boyd will be Burrow’s next-best option. The fourth-year receiver pulled in a team-high 1,046 yards in 2019, as well as five touchdowns. John Ross III is another solid weapon, though he missed eight games with an injured shoulder in 2019.

Burrow may have some magic left over from his stellar senior season at LSU, but there are too many obstacles for him to overcome in his first year with the Bengals.

Other top Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates

Another QB facing an uphill battle is former Alabama signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa. Since he dislocated his hip against Mississippi State in November, Tua’s draft stock has slipped, though he’s still expected to go in the top 10.

The boom-or-bust candidate put up 2,840 yards and 33 TDs on 71.4% passing through nine games in 2019. He has been labeled a generational talent by some, and could make a significant impact in the NFL, with the right fit.

Tagovailoa has been linked to teams like the Dolphins, Redskins, Chargers, and Lions. It’s anyone’s guess where he'll end up, but he has the skill and upside to overshadow Burrow in his rookie season.

Running back D’Andre Swift is another first-year player to watch. The Georgia standout averaged 6.2 yards per carry and amassed 1,434 all-purpose yards and seven rushing touchdowns last season. He impressed at the NFL Combine, with a 4.48-second 40-yard dash, which is faster than the times former Georgia running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel posted.

Swift is expected to go in the late first round or early second round. His compact build, speed, and vision provide him with the potential to shine quickly at the next level.

It’s important to note, too, that running backs have won four of the last seven Offensive Rookie of the Year awards. Only twice since 2013 has a quarterback claimed the honor (Dak Prescott in 2016 and Kyler Murray in 2019).

If a quarterback wins in 2020, it would more than likely go to Tagovailoa, but based on recent history, Swift is your best bet to run away with the top rookie accolade.

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