Buccaneers vs. Packers: The best betting props for the NFC Championship Game

At long last, we have the dream matchup — Tom Brady versus Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game where the stakes could not be higher. A place in the Super Bowl awaits the winner, with the chance of another ring, another piece of history, and front-row seats for the Weeknd.

Green Bay has home-field advantage for the NFC Championship Game, but the Buccaneers defeated the Packers, 38-10, earlier this season.

The Bucs had it easy this year, and only won one regular-season game against a team with a winning record, but can they turn on the heat in what could be a very cold night at Lambeau Field?

The Packers and their unbelievable offense just put up 32 points on the NFL’s No. 1 defense so they will have no fear, in what could turn into an epic Brady-Rodgers shootout.

Here are the four best prop bets for the NFC Championship Game.

Davante Adams receiving yards

Short story? Davante Adams is world class and pretty much unstoppable.

Slightly longer story? He racked up 115 catches, 1,374 yards, and 18 touchdowns during the regular season. That’s an average of 8.2 catches, 98.1 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game. No wide receiver had more yards after the catch than Adams’ 597.

And he continued in the playoffs. Despite going up against arguably the best cornerback in the league, Jalen Ramsey, and a standout Rams defense, Adams hauled in nine of his 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown.

Now he'll get to feast on a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 21st in the league against the pass. Russell Gage, Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson all had more than 90 receiving yards in a game against the Bucs this year.

Tampa Bay held Adams to just 61 yards in Week 6, but this Green Bay offense is a different animal now. Rodgers is going to have to throw plenty, which is great news for his favorite receiver.

Pick: Over 88.5 receiving yards (-115)

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Tom Brady passing yards

Brady has thrown for 345 yards or more in five of his last seven games, as the six-time Super Bowl winner has perfected how to peak at the right time.

The line may look high, after Brady completed just 18 of his 33 passes for 199 yards against the Saints last week, but there is more to that stat line than meets the eye. The Bucs had three touchdown drives that accumulated a total of just 63 yards, courtesy of the field position their defense was able to snag off Drew Brees. That won’t be the case in Green Bay, and Brady is going to have to be on his game.

There are only six teams that have conceded fewer passing yards per game than the Packers this year, but their secondary still has question marks. Even with a broken thumb, Rams quarterback Jared Goff was able to move the ball and completed 21 passes for 174 yards last week.

Green Bay’s offense isn’t going to gift wrap field position like the Saints did, and Tampa Bay is going to be up against it to keep pace with the Packers.

Pick: Over 293.5 receiving yards (-115)

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Aaron Rodgers passing yards

Rodgers can also beat his passing yards line, even though he managed just 160 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 6 and was intercepted twice. He was only intercepted three more times the rest of the season.

The Week 6 game was a blip and nothing more. Against the highly rated Rams defense, Rodgers found seven different receivers for a total of 296 yards and a completion rate of 64%. He averaged 8.2 yards per attempt this season, a stat that hasn’t been that high since 2014.

Tampa Bay may have the best rushing defense in the league, but teams have had plenty of joy throwing against the Buccaneers. They have given up an average of 269 yards per game, a completion rate of 69%, and an average of seven yards per attempt. Only the Jets, Jaguars, and Texans allowed a higher completion rate than the Buccaneers.

Brees fell apart against Tampa Bay last week, but seven days earlier, Taylor Heinicke threw for 306 yards against the Buccaneers in just his second NFL start.

Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, and Terry Bridgewater all threw for more than 350 yards in a game against Tampa Bay this season, and Rodgers can pick off this weak pass defense.  

Pick: Over 284.5 receiving yards (-115)

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Rob Gronkowski receiving yards

Rob Gronkowski had one of his best games of the season against the Packers this year, when he hauled in five catches for 78 yards (the second-best total of his campaign). But things have gone off the rails for Gronk since Tampa Bay had its Week 13 bye.

Gronk was averaging 5.2 targets, 3.1 catches, and 42 yards per game before the bye. In the six weeks since, those averages have fallen to just 3.3 targets, 1.5 catches, and a measly 22 yards per game. Only once in those six games has Gronk gone for more than 29 yards.

Whatever the reason, Brady isn’t looking for Gronk as much as his other supremely talented receivers. In the last six games Cameron Brate, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin have all been targeted more.

Even with this low line and the expectation that Brady will throw to keep up with Rodgers, Under is the play. Gronk’s trajectory is heading south, and if he is only seeing three targets a game, he is going to struggle to beat this total. 

Pick: Under 28.5 receiving yards (-110)