Browns vs. Ravens: The best player prop bets for SNF

The AFC North has been ultra-competitive this year with all four teams rocking a winning record as we head into Week 12. Sunday Night Football sees a mighty divisional matchup as the 7-3 Ravens host the 6-5 Browns.

Baltimore is a 3.5-point home favorite with a returning Lamar Jackson, and this is the first of two meetings between the teams in the next three weeks. Here are the three best player prop bets for this huge divisional battle.

Nick Chubb: Over/Under 80.5 Rushing Yards

Chubb is an absolute machine who I could wax lyrical about all day. He is averaging 106.4 rushing yards per game this season, second in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry (117.1). The key difference? Henry is averaging 10 carries more per game than Chubb, whose average of 6.0 yards per carry this season leads the league.

Chubb has broken the 100-yard rushing mark four times in his last five games, and now has 21 career games in the NFL in which he’s posted at least 100 yards on the ground.

Since 2019, Chubb has had 19 games in which he’s had 18 carries or more. In 79% of them, he went for more than 90 yards, and he can expect another big workload against the Ravens. The Browns are the fifth-heaviest run team in the league, rushing on average 29.9 times per game, and that run game centers around Chubb.

Kareem Hunt is due to return from injury and could suit up on Sunday, but even if he does, that shouldn’t concern Chubb bettors. In five games alongside Hunt this year, Chubb averaged 18 carries and 104.6 yards per game. In the three games without him, he averaged 17.3 carries and 109.3 yards per game. Whoever is with him in the backfield, it won’t matter.

The Ravens have a strong run defense, but that shouldn’t put you off taking the Over.

Pick: Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Mark Andrews: Over/Under 53.5 Receiving Yards

Andrews proved just how good he is last week, as he hauled in eight catches from 10 targets for 73 yards despite Jackson having to sit out. Andrews has now had at least five targets in 18 straight games (dating back to Week 6 in 2020), and has had at least five catches in 80% of his games this season.

With Jackson telling reporters this week he is "120%" ready to go, that’s only a positive for Andrews. He’s cleared 60 receiving yards in six of his last eight games, and is averaging a career-high 69.6 yards per game this season.

He has had a 22.9% target share this year, with only Hollywood Brown out-targeting him for the Ravens. Travis Kelce is the only tight end in the league who tops Andrews in terms of targets, catches, and receiving yards.

As for the match-up with the Browns, they have one of the better pass defenses in the league, but recent weeks have shown flashes of opportunities for the tight end position. Since Week 7, the lead tight end against the Browns has had an average of 4.6 catches for 39 yards. These players are a level below Andrews, so you’d have to expect him to do more damage.

The Ravens' star has gone for 93 yards, 58 yards, and 78 yards in his last three games with the Browns, and will be in line for another high-volume day on Sunday.

Pick: Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Baker Mayfield: Over/Under 210.5 Passing Yards

If anyone needed a bye week, it’s poor old Baker Mayfield. Coming into this trip to Baltimore, Mayfield is struggling with his shoulder, groin, knee, and foot according to reports, and there’s no hiding that he is seriously beaten up.

Week 7’s match with Denver is the only game he’s missed though, which shows you just how tough this fella is. However, in the four games since he's been back, Mayfield has thrown four touchdowns, three interceptions, and managed an average of just 173 yards per game through the air.

The Browns lean heavily on the run game (and why wouldn’t you when you have Chubb on your team!), and that continues to hamper Mayfield in these prop bets. He’s completed less than 20 passes in 70% of his games this year. Of all quarterbacks who have started at least eight games this season, Baker ranks 27th for pass attempts per game (27.5), and he isn’t exactly getting much help from his offensive line. Mayfield gets sacked 8.9% of the time when he’s attempting to pass the ball – the fourth-highest tally in the league.

Baker believers may see this as a "get-right game," as the Ravens' pass defense is ranked 31st in the league and gives up 281 passing yards per game. But they’ve tightened up since the Week 8 bye, and have given up an average of just 246 passing yards a game since then.

Stick with Baltimore’s defense to have another good outing against a bruised and battered Baker.

Pick: Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-113)