Broncos vs. Giants: NFL Week 1 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Denver Broncos and New York Giants kick off their 2021 seasons with a late Sunday afternoon game at MetLife Stadium that has the Broncos installed as a 3-point favorite. Let’s dive in and take a closer look at this matchup.

Bridgewater’s Broncos

Contrary to many preseason assumptions about the Broncos’ starting quarterback situation, incumbent Drew Lock has been replaced by Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was acquired in the offseason after a serviceable campaign in Carolina with the Panthers in 2020. His team went just 4-11, but he did improve on his career average 66% completion percentage by hitting 69% during just his third season as the primary starter.

Bridgewater isn’t a walking highlight reel, and he has a lower ceiling than Lock, but with so many talented weapons around him perhaps Vic Fangio is more interested in a game manager than a playmaker. The Broncos’ star tight end, Noah Fant, is likely to play, and there are lots of speedy young receivers on the outside that seem poised for breakout seasons.

Jones still has plenty to prove

The New York Giants' front office has taken heat for the drafting and subsequent play of quarterback Daniel Jones. "Danny Dimes" is now entering his third season in the league, and if he wants to remain in New York he will need to play better than he has in his first two.

Returning to the Giants' backfield is running back Saquon Barkley, the immensely talented and physical young phenom who seems to have recovered from the ACL injury that cost him all but two games of the  2020 season. Barkley has not spent much time in on-field physical activities, but is expected to make his return in the season opener. Don’t be surprised if we see him on a type of "pitch count" with only a limited number of carries as he works his way back into game shape.

Broncos and Giants Betting Trends

• The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on field turf
• The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. the Giants
• The Under is 4-0 in the last four games featuring the Broncos as a road favorite
• The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four Week 1 games
• The Under is 7-0 ATS in the Giants' last seven games as an underdog

The Broncos are Simply Better

The line on this game is a bit scary with a road favorite debuting their new quarterback, but the Broncos are simply better than the Giants in many areas, especially on defense.

The Broncos have invested a lot in their secondary, and have the potential to be an elite defense if Von Miller and Bradley Chubb can be disruptive along the line. Josey Jewell is a tackling machine, and the Giants' offense is hardly intimidating with nearly every talent position listed as questionable entering the game.

The Giants’ offensive line has many question marks, and Daniel Jones hasn’t proven he can consistently hurt defenses with a deep ball. The Broncos will control the lines of scrimmage and win this one going away.

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Giants 13

NFL Week 1 Pick: Broncos -3