Broncos vs. Chiefs: The best player prop bets for SNF

Arrowhead Stadium plays host to a cracking divisional clash on primetime this week, as the 7-4 Chiefs host the 6-5 Broncos. Kansas City is coming out of their bye week having won four on the spin to get them back on track, but Andy Reid’s team has threatened to implode already this season, and could do so again.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have won three of their last four, upsetting the Dallas Cowboys as 10-point underdogs, before beating the Los Angeles Chargers 28-13 last week. Denver are underdogs again in this one, as we dive into the best player props.

Tyreek Hill: Over/Under 76.5 Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill’s season is a strange one. His average yards per game this season is pretty much the same as it was in 2020 – sitting at 85 yards – which puts him in an elite level category of wide receivers. But for prop bettors, there are red flags everywhere.

For one, the Chiefs' offense has spluttered and stumbled more than anyone could’ve expected. That means while Hill’s average is high, it’s inflated hugely by a 197-yard performance against the Browns, and a 186-yard effort against the Eagles. He’s failed to get to 85 receiving yards in eight of his 11 games this year (73%). 

While his targets per game (11.1) are the highest they’ve ever been in his career, Hill’s average yards per reception has dropped dramatically from 14.7 in 2020 to 11.1 this year. "Cheetah" hasn’t lost any of his explosiveness, but teams are aware of the threat that the Patrick Mahomes and Hill combination possesses, and they’re eliminating the big plays.

Over bettors may point to the Chiefs coming off the bye as a plus – time to regroup, rest up, and go again. But that may not be the case for Hill, with 2020 being a standout exception.

The Broncos have an average pass defense, ranking 17th in yards allowed to opposition wide receivers per game (157.5). Keenan Allen caught seven of 10 targets for 85 yards against them last week, but Denver seems to have Hill’s number.

In nine games against the Broncos, Hill has never topped 74 yards. He has 71 targets (7.9 per game), 43 catches (4.8 per game) and just 468 yards (52 per game). There are enough worries here to take the Under.

Pick: Under 76.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Noah Fant: Over/Under 34.5 Receiving Yards

Should we push the panic button on Noah Fant? He caught three passes for just 12 yards against the Chargers last week, which makes it two of the last three games in which Fant hasn’t posted more than 13 yards.

I can see why people are jumping ship, but I will keep the faith.

Under bettors will claim that Jerry Jeudy’s return means the Broncos’ receiving corps is too good to deliver prop value to Fant. The belief is that with Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and even the underrated Tim Patrick all catching Teddy Bridgewater’s eye, Fant will get lost in the mix.

However, Fant is still a huge part of this offense. In the four games that all four of those players have started, Fant has 22 targets, second only to Jeudy’s 23. Patrick has 16 and Sutton has 13 in that span. While he’s had two busts in that spell (two catches for eight yards, three catches for 12 yards) he’s also had a couple of stormers – six catches for 62 yards in Week 1, and five catches for 59 yards in Week 10.

The Chiefs rank 28th in the NFL against tight ends, allowing an average of 63.3 yards per game to the position. Noah Fant has visited Arrowhead twice in his career, and despite being on the losing team each time, tallied 56 receiving yards there in 2019, and 57 in 2020.

Bridgewater has only attempted 30 or more passes once in the last four games, but visiting the Chiefs normally comes with the caveat of having to chuck the football to keep up. That’s good news for Fant, who can at least beat this line, if not Kansas City.

Pick: Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Patrick Mahomes: Over/Under 281.5 Passing Yards

There’s a very real chance that over the bye week, Reid and Mahomes concocted a primetime plan that is going to blow us all away. They’ll be aware of some of the criticism headed the Chiefs way this season – in four of his last five games, Mahomes has failed to throw more than one touchdown a game, and not topped 275 passing yards – but can they turn the tide?

I can’t believe I’m writing this, but it’s getting harder to trust Mahomes. He’s throwing it a ton – 40.8 times per game on average – but he’s completing just 65.5% of those passes (20th in the NFL). The kicker is that they’re not the big plays he’s made a career highlight reel out of, as his yards gained per completion is a career-low 10.9.

Denver has held the last five teams they’ve faced to under 300 yards, giving up an average of 218.2 yards per game in that spell. Mahomes will have had plenty of time to prepare, but the Broncos' defense can cause him problems. I’m siding with the Under.

Pick: Under 281.5 Passing Yards (-114)