Broncos vs. Chiefs: The best betting props for SNF Week 13

Some good news coming out of Denver this week – they will have a recognized quarterback playing under center in Kansas City. The bad news is it’s Drew Lock, and he has five interceptions and just one touchdown in his last two games.

In even worse news for the Broncos, they now face the 10-1 Chiefs. Kansas City has won their last 10 games against the Broncos. In their last three head-to-heads, the Chiefs have limited the Broncos to a total of just 25 points, while scoring 96 themselves.

It looks set to be another demolition job for Patrick Mahomes and company, but there’s still plenty of value to be had in the BetAmerica player props, starting with the 2018 MVP himself.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards

There are few things in life that are certain – death, taxes, and Patrick Mahomes stealing the show on a Sunday with a “human highlight reel” performance. Mahomes has averaged 318 yards per game through the air this year and is coming off a ridiculous effort against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where he threw for 462 yards and still took his foot off the gas.

The fixture against the Broncos in Denver in Week 7 was Mahomes’ worst outing of the year, but with plenty of snow on the ground, we can forgive him that effort.

Ben Roethlisberger is the only quarterback to have thrown for more than 300 yards against the Broncos this season, suggesting they are actually fairly formidable this year. But Denver has lost some key defensive pieces, and Mahomes is in a league of his own. Back him on the Overs and back him with confidence.

Pick: Over 312.5 passing yards (-115)

Tyreek Hill Receptions

If we are backing Mahomes to have a good game, it’s only wise to do the same with Hill.

“Cheetah” is coming off an incredible performance that actually looks like a typo. Thirteen catches for 269 yards and three touchdowns.

Hill has 33 catches in his last three games, and has seen 47 targets from Mahomes in that time. His receiving yards speak for themselves; 98, 113, 102 and 269, respectively, in his last four games.

But the Broncos have quietly been quite good in shutting down wide receivers this year. Denver has given up just 7.52 yards per target to wide receivers this year, ranking third behind only the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans.

Tyreek Hill is no ordinary receiver, but those Denver numbers are enough to sway me to backing him on receptions rather than yards. With the amount Mahomes is throwing to him, this line looks too low.

Pick: Over 5.5 receptions (-175)

Noah Fant Receiving Yards

Let’s ignore the Week 12 game against the Saints, as the Broncos didn’t have a quarterback, and that isn’t a fair reflection on their young tight end.

Fant has been super-consistent, racking up between 35 and 57 yards in all his games bar two – a dud against the Raiders where he caught three balls for just 18 yards, and a breakout game in Week 1 versus the Titans where he racked up five catches for 81 yards.

Fant’s solid performances this year (despite his uninspiring quarterback) give us plenty of hope against the Chiefs. There have been five tight ends this season who recorded at least five catches and 48 yards against Kansas City. If Denver falls behind as expected, we should see plenty of plays involving Fant.

Fant went for 38 yards against the Chiefs in Week 7 in a game in the snow, one in which he spent most of it hobbling around after only just returning from an ankle injury. Last time he was in Kansas City, he went for 56 yards in Week 15 of the 2019 season. With all of that in mind, I like the Over again.

Pick: Over 38.5 receiving yards (-115)

Drew Lock Interceptions

Since the Broncos came off the bye in Week 5, Drew Lock has played six matches and thrown 11 interceptions. There hasn’t been a full game where he has been interception-free since Week 1 against the Titans.

So it’s pretty much a given he’s going to throw one against the Chiefs – particularly with Kansas City being 14-point favorites and the total points line of 50.5. Given those forecasts, you can expect Lock to be throwing a lot as the Broncos try to keep pace with Mahomes.

There is huge value to be had in the Over 1.5 here, and I was amazed to see the odds on BetAmerica. Lock threw two interceptions against the Chiefs in Week 7, and threw one against them in the Week 15 match in 2019 as well.

The Chiefs’ defense is on the up – with an interception in Week 11 against the Raiders and two last week against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Pick: Over 1.5 interceptions (+150)

Wager on all NFL Week 13 games at BetAmerica!