Broncos vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 13 betting odds, preview, and pick

Heading into 2021, it was expected that the AFC West would be a one-horse race with the front-running Kansas City Chiefs dominating the division they have won the last five seasons. Instead it has become the most tightly contested division in all of football, with the Chiefs leading at 7-4, but all three other teams close behind at 6-5.

This week features a fantastic Sunday Night primetime matchup between the Chiefs and Denver Broncos. Let’s break down the game, beginning with the latest betting odds.

Broncos Need a Healthy Bridgewater

There was some doubt who would be the Broncos’ starting quarterback when the season began. Denver had incumbent Drew Lock, and offseason acquisition Teddy Bridgewater. Clearly the coaches made the right choice, as this Broncos team looks completely different with a healthy Bridgewater under center.

Last week Bridgewater had to sit out a portion of the win against the Los Angeles Chargers, and a substituted Lock was disastrous. He threw an interception that got the Chargers back in the game, but when Bridgewater returned out of halftime he made several key plays to seal the win including a touchdown throw in the third quarter to go back up 14 points.

Bridgewater is 40-18-1 ATS as a career starting quarterback, and has shown great ball security. He has a 1.5% interception rate in 2021, which is fourth best in the league. Bridgewater has battled injuries all season, and his health is key if the Broncos are going to compete with the Chiefs' potent offense.

Broncos and Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS at home in 2021
• The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups between these teams
• The Broncos have gone Under in the last five games, and nine of 11 in 2021
• The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win
• The Under is 5-1 in the last six Chiefs games

Defenses Will Dominate

All of the trends point to these teams playing a defensive battle. This is a division contest between two organizations that know each other well, and each team’s defense has been improving in recent weeks.

The Chiefs had one of the worst defenses in the entire league through the first half of the season, but recent victories suggest they've rediscovered a bit of their mojo. They are second in the league in points allowed per game over their last three games, and 10th in yards allowed per play.

The Broncos have gotten some players back on defense and young players like Patrick Surtain are stepping up as well.

The quarterbacks will undoubtedly decide this game, but I expect it to stay under the total and for points to come at a premium. Let’s take the double-digit underdog in this divisional matchup and root for windy conditions to make throwing the ball a bit tougher on Patrick Mahomes.

Score prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17

NFL Week 13 pick: Broncos +9.5

Broncos vs. Chiefs pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Chiefs to win outright and to cover the spread.