Bills vs. 49ers: The best betting props for MNF Week 13

The San Francisco 49ers had to close their facility due to COVID-19 measures, and like a homeless student crashing on a mate’s couch, they’ve ended up relocating to the Arizona Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium. That little gem adds a whole lot of spice to Monday Night Football as the Buffalo Bills rock into Arizona just three weeks after the heartbreak of the “Murray Miracle.”

The Bills led by 14 points in the third quarter, but the game turned on its head. With two seconds left in the final quarter, quarterback Kyler Murray threw an incredible 43-yard Hail Mary, which wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins managed to pluck out of the air despite being covered by Bills defenders left, right and center.

With that trauma still fresh, the 8-3 Bills now have the chance to put things right against San Francisco, who still have slim playoff hopes at 5-6. Here are the best prop bets for Monday Night Football as we get the week off to a flyer.

Josh Allen Passing Yards

Allen can be a tough one to get right in the prop bets because he can blow hot or cold. In the last six weeks, he has thrown for 285 yards or more in half of them, and 157 or less in the other half. It really is boom or bust. Last week at home to the Chargers, he attempted just 24 passes for 157 yards – and that wasn’t even his worst performance of the year.

With that in mind, this has all the hallmarks of a game which could go wrong for Allen. The 49ers have given up an average of just 218 passing yards per game this year, ranking second in the NFL despite being decimated with injuries.

Now that the San Francisco secondary is getting healthier, that average may come down even further. In their last two games, they held Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff to just 198 yards, and New Orleans Saints signal caller Drew Brees couldn’t throw for more than 76 yards in one half. Allen can be the third signal caller in a row to struggle against the 49ers.

Pick: Under 267.5 passing yards (-115)

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards

Raheem Mostert has had a stop-and-start season due to injury, but now he’s back and healthy. He can feast on a Bills defense that has allowed an average of 4.55 yards per carry this season.

Mostert played 29 snaps last week in his return to action and got 16 carries, which he turned into 43 yards against a tough Rams defense. We have a small sample size this year, but Mostert has averaged 5.2 yards per carry and is still the most effective runner in the 49ers’ backfield.

Despite the possible return of running back Tevin Coleman, and Jeff Wilson having already returned last week, Mostert will still be the lead back for the 49ers. He should be in line for 14 or more touches here, which can carry him over this line.

Pick: Over 53.5 rushing yards (+100)

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards

John Brown is on Injured Reserve now, which means more targets for Diggs, but also more attention from the opposing defense.

Last week against the Chargers, when Brown was out, Diggs managed just 39 yards. When Brown sat out in Week 5 against the Jets, Diggs managed just 48.

The Bills are unlikely to enjoy running against the 49ers, so it’s difficult to see Allen having an explosive game. Therefore, we can expect Diggs to struggle. Niners corner back Richard Sherman is back, which is going to help bolster their secondary that has been ravaged by injuries all year.

San Francisco has given up just 7.8 yards per target on average this year, and a similar performance is going to hurt Diggs.

Pick: Under 77.5 receiving yards (-120)

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards

Aiyuk’s last three games will give plenty of bettors confidence going into this one, as he has racked up 115 receiving yards against the Patriots, 91 against the Seahawks and 75 against the Saints in recent weeks. But now with wide-out Deebo Samuel back in the lineup, I’m tempering expectations here.

In the four weeks that Samuel and Aiyuk have been on the field together, Aiyuk has 5.3 targets per game for 47.75 yards per game. Compare that to the four games without Samuel, where he has received an average of 8.75 targets per game for 64.25 yards.

Despite Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan’s hopes, Aiyuk’s volume is certainly going to take a hit. He has to go up against Bills corner back Tre’Davious White, who has had a solid season. Last week, the Bills held the Chargers’ wide receiver duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to just 66 yards combined. They can shut down Aiyuk on Monday.

Pick: Under 51.5 receiving yards (-110)

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